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We’ve completed the semifinals of every conference tournament. Now it’s time to crown conference champions and hand out automatic qualifiers.
On Sunday, we’ll find out who’s in and who’s out in the NCAA Tournament with the annual selection show (9 PM, ESPNU). So with that, it’s yet again time to dissect what we might see when the 17-team field is announced.
This season has been fun, exciting, weird, crazy, unusual, different, you name it. The field is wide open and the title is up for anyone to take. There might be some well-known teams, and perhaps some teams that have had good seasons, missing out once again.
If you need a refresher from Tuesday, check out what the projected field looked like.
Automatic Qualifiers
There are only nine AQs, and you can thank the ACC for the odd number (please find a sixth team ASAP). The highest remaining seed in each conference tournament takes their respective automatic qualifier.
2019 College Crosse Bracketology Automatic Qualifiers 8.0
| Team | Conference | Record | RPI | SOS | vs. 1-5 | vs. 6-10 | vs. 11-15 | vs. 16-20 | vs. 21+ | Avg. RPI Ws | Avg. RPI Ls | Significant Ws | Significant Ls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Conference | Record | RPI | SOS | vs. 1-5 | vs. 6-10 | vs. 11-15 | vs. 16-20 | vs. 21+ | Avg. RPI Ws | Avg. RPI Ls | Significant Ws | Significant Ls |
| Penn State | Big Ten | 13-1 | 1 | 10 | 1-1 | 1-0 | 3-0 | 1-0 | 7-0 | 22.84615385 | 3 | NA | Yale (3) |
| Penn | Ivy League | 10-3 | 5 | 13 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 1-0 | 7-0 | 32.5 | 5.333333333 | Yale (3) | Maryland (11) |
| Towson | CAA | 10-4 | 6 | 8 | 0-1 | 2-0 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 7-0 | 29.7 | 12.25 | NA | Cornell (12), Denver (13), UMass (20) |
| Denver | Big East | 10-4 | 13 | 22 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3-1 | 6-1 | 31.7 | 13 | Towson (6) | Villanova (16), Princeton (24) |
| High Point | SoCon | 13-2 | 19 | 45 | 2-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 11-2 | 40.07692308 | 49 | Virginia (2), Duke (4) | Jacksonville (41), St. John's (57) |
| Hobart | NEC | 11-4 | 25 | 70 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 11-2 | 52.54545455 | 25.25 | NA | Robert Morris (28), Saint Joseph's (51) |
| Marist | MAAC | 9-6 | 29 | 39 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 9-3 | 56.77777778 | 23.5 | NA | Bucknell (37), Detroit Mercy (48) |
| Lehigh | Patriot League | 9-7 | 31 | 21 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 8-4 | 40.33333333 | 23.85714286 | Army West Point (15), Rutgers (21), Boston University (27) (twice), Navy (30) | Holy Cross (36), Bucknell (37), Hofstra (45) |
| Vermont | America East | 8-6 | 39 | 50 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8-5 | 53.25 | 31.33333333 | Holy Cross (36) | Stony Brook (42), UMass Lowell (59) |
This is...different.
Comparing this to the 7.0 AQ list, four auto-bids have changed hands. UMass got down early and couldn’t come back against Drexel, Mount St. Mary’s let Robert Morris back in it late and lost in overtime, Stony Brook was dominated by UMBC, and the biggest one of all was Loyola falling to Army West Point, allowing a bid stealer in the Patriot League.
So that’s one part.
At-Large Candidates
Eight more teams will be picked to join the nine qualifiers. Some blue-blood programs will be left out of the NCAA Tournament.
2019 College Crosse Bracketology At-Large Candidates 8.0
| Team | Conference | Record | RPI | SOS | vs. 1-5 | vs. 6-10 | vs. 11-15 | vs. 16-20 | vs. 21+ | Avg. RPI Ws | Avg. RPI Ls | Significant Ws | Significant Ls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Conference | Record | RPI | SOS | vs. 1-5 | vs. 6-10 | vs. 11-15 | vs. 16-20 | vs. 21+ | Avg. RPI Ws | Avg. RPI Ls | Significant Ws | Significant Ls |
| Virginia | ACC | 12-3 | 2 | 11 | 0-1 | 3-1 | 0-0 | 2-1 | 7-0 | 26.75 | 10 | NA | Duke (4), Loyola (7), High Point (19) |
| Yale | Ivy League | 12-2 | 3 | 14 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2-0 | 1-1 | 8-0 | 30.91666667 | 10.5 | Penn State (1) | Penn (5), Villanova (16) |
| Duke | ACC | 11-4 | 4 | 1 | 2-0 | 3-2 | 1-0 | 0-2 | 5-0 | 23.18181818 | 13.5 | Virginia (2) | Notre Dame (8), Syracuse (10), North Carolina (17), High Point (19) |
| Loyola | Patriot League | 11-4 | 7 | 9 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 1-0 | 7-1 | 27.81818182 | 13 | Virginia (2) | Army West Point (15), Boston University (27) |
| Notre Dame | ACC | 8-5 | 8 | 4 | 1-2 | 1-0 | 2-2 | 1-0 | 3-1 | 21.875 | 11 | Duke (4) | Cornell (12), Ohio State (14), Richmond (23) |
| Johns Hopkins | Big Ten | 8-6 | 9 | 3 | 0-2 | 0-3 | 2-1 | 1-0 | 5-0 | 23.125 | 6.666666667 | NA | Syracuse (10), Ohio State (14) |
| Syracuse | ACC | 9-4 | 10 | 12 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 2-0 | 1-1 | 4-1 | 20.22222222 | 18.5 | Duke (4), Johns Hopkins (9) | North Carolina (17), Colgate (47) |
| Maryland | Big Ten | 11-4 | 11 | 15 | 1-1 | 0-3 | 1-0 | 2-0 | 7-0 | 26.63636364 | 6.75 | Penn (5) | NA |
| Cornell | Ivy League | 10-5 | 12 | 6 | 0-4 | 2-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8-0 | 35.5 | 4.4 | Towson (6), Notre Dame (8) | NA |
| Ohio State | Big Ten | 8-4 | 14 | 28 | 0-1 | 2-0 | 0-1 | 1-0 | 5-2 | 28.375 | 16.75 | Notre Dame (8), Johns Hopkins (9) | Rutgers (21), Michigan (34) |
| Army West Point | Patriot League | 12-4 | 15 | 24 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-0 | 10-2 | 38.58333333 | 18.75 | Loyola (7) | Boston University (27), Lehigh (31) |
| Villanova | Big East | 8-7 | 16 | 5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 6-2 | 34.125 | 17.14285714 | Yale (3), Denver (13) | Georgetown (18), Drexel (26), Providence (46) |
| North Carolina | ACC | 8-7 | 17 | 6 | 1-2 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 6-0 | 36.625 | 7.857142857 | Duke (4), Syracuse (10) | NA |
| Georgetown | Big East | 12-4 | 18 | 38 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 1-0 | 11-1 | 43.33333333 | 16 | Villanova (16) | Marquette (38) |
| UMass | CAA | 10-5 | 20 | 31 | 0-1 | 1-0 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 9-2 | 42.6 | 20.6 | Towson (6) | Drexel (26), Hofstra (45) |
Potential Seeds By Conference
With the Patriot League having a bid stealer, here’s what I have as my conference minimum/maximum number of bids.
- ACC - Minimum: 3, Maximum 4
- America East - 1 bid
- Big Ten - Minimum 2, Maximum 3
- Big East - Minimum 1, Maximum 2
- CAA - Minimum 1, Maximum 2
- Ivy League - Minimum 2, Maximum 3
- MAAC - 1 bid
- NEC - 1 bid
- Patriot League - 2 bids
- SoCon - 1 bid
Bracketology Prediction 8.0
Before I unveil what I have, here’s everything you need to know for creating the bracket. The cliffnotes from the NCAA are below:
- Eligibility and availability of student-athletes for NCAA championships
- Won-lost record
- Strength of schedule index [based on team’s 10 highest rated contests; (2 games against the same opponent will count as two contests)]
- Results of the RPI
- Record against ranked teams 1-5; 6-10; 11-15; 16-20; 21+
- Average RPI wins (average RPI of all wins)
- Average RPI loss (average RPI of all losses)
- Head-to-head competition
- Results versus common opponents
- Significant wins and losses (wins against teams ranked higher in the RPI and losses against teams ranked lower in the RPI)
- Location of contests
- The committee has a travel limit guideline to no more than 400 miles for first round games
- Any media or coaches polls do not matter
Let’s do this one more time.
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Last Three In: Syracuse, Johns Hopkins, Maryland
First Three Out: Cornell, Army West Point, Ohio State
It seems pretty obvious right now that the last at-large spot is down to Cornell and Maryland. Currently as things stand, I would give the slight edge to Maryland. However, if the results play to Cornell’s favor (notably Towson and Notre Dame winning), that really helps the Big Red’s resume. Not only will those team’s RPIs rise, but Cornell would have beaten two conference champions. It could go to as many as four if Hobart and Lehigh win their title games.
The final seed came down to Loyola and Syracuse. While the loss did slide the Greyhounds down, Loyola still gets seeded. Both teams have a top five and top 10 win, but the Orange have one more win in the top 15 than the Greyhounds and they also have the edge in average RPI wins. With ‘Cuse’s loss to Colgate, Loyola has the advantage in average RPI losses. They both have similar records against their common opponents (Army West Point, Colgate, Duke, Johns Hopkins, Navy, Rutgers, Virginia) with Syracuse going 5-2 and Loyola going 6-2 (extra game due to two matchups vs. Army). In the end, Loyola has the RPI edge (7 vs. 10) and SOS advantage (9 vs. 12).
Matchup wise, there was a little bit of a problem I ran into when deciding who Virginia, Penn, and Yale would face between Marist (MAAC champ), Hobart (NEC champ), and Maryland (at-large bid). Maryland is the closest team to Virginia and inside that 400 mile range. Marist is just outside of that by 16 miles. However, despite the travel guideline, the selection committee still has to maintain the integrity of the bracket. Putting one of Marist or Hobart against No. 5 Yale while Maryland plays No. 3 Virginia doesn’t seem right. That’s why Marist eats the 16 extra miles to play Virginia once again.