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Villanova's Plea: More Pennsylvanian Lacrosse Teams, Please!

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I am totally obsessed with this fact: All of Villanova's wins this season have come against schools located in Pennsylvania; the Wildcats are winless against opponents that hail from a state that doesn't have Communist alcohol distribution laws. The fact really means nothing in the overall -- hell, you could argue that Wagner hasn't beaten a team from North Korea in its history and wonder whether the Seahawks are sympathetic to dictatorial regimes that love human rights violations almost as much as not having electricity -- but until Villanova actually beats a school that doesn't have brick and mortar in the Keystone State, I'm going to keep hammering this point home as though it were indisputable scientific truth.

I took some time today to pull together the Wildcats' discrete performances against each of its opponents this season with an eye toward three metrics: offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, and Villanova'spossession percentage. While this is all somewhat eroded due to the fact that the non-Pennsylvania schools that the Wildcats have played this season are arguably better than the Pennsylvanian schools that Villanova has faced (it is a close argument, however), the differences between the performances are stark:

Lehigh 42.50 20.00 53.33%
Bucknell 33.08 35.00 53.42%
Drexel 40.00 30.00 53.85%
Pennsylvania 30.77 26.92 50.00%
Delaware 25.71 30.23 44.87%
Princeton 22.22 41.18 51.43%
Maryland 17.86 40.74 50.91%

Messing around with averages is always an effort in arson, but I have this lighter here and its useless if I don't try to burn down my own house and collect on the insurance fraud:

  • Against Pennsylvanian schools, Villanova's average offensive efficiency is 36.58; its average defensive efficiency is 27.98; and the Wildcats are maintaining offensive possession 52.65% of the game.
  • Against non-Pennsylvanian schools, Villanova's average offensive efficiency is 21.93; its average defensive efficiency is 37.38; and the Wildcats are maintaining offensive possessions 49.07% of the game.
  • In totem, the differences in the metrics are: offensive efficiency is up 14.65 goals per 100 offensive possessions against Pennsylvanian schools; defensive efficiency is down 9.40 goals per 100 defensive possessions against non-Pennsylvanian schools; and the possession percentage is off 3.58% against non-Pennsylvanian schools.

The only Pennsylvanian school left on Villanova's schedule is Penn State at the end of March. Otherwise, it's all non-Pennsylvanian schools the rest of the way for the Wildcats: Syracuse, Georgetown, Rutgers, St. John's, Notre Dame, and Providence. The obviously spells doom -- DOOM! -- for the Fightin' Corrados.

Or not. Whatever.