Lacrosse Analytics
Eulogizing the 2012 College Lacrosse Season: (10) Virginia
You spent the better part of four months meticulously dissecting the 2012 college lacrosse season. You shouldn't stop now because cold turkey is a bad way to go through life, man. College Crosse is providing decompression snapshots of all 61 teams and their 2012 campaigns, mostly because everything needs a proper burial.
I. VITAL SIGNS
Team: Virginia Cavaliers
2012 Record: 12-4 (2-1, ACC)
2012 Strength of Schedule (Efficiency Margin): 2.14 (10)
2011 Strength of Schedule (Efficiency Margin): 4.97 (2)
Winning Percentage Change from 2011: +2.78%
2012 Efficiency Margin: 7.70 (10)
Efficiency Margin Change from 2011: -2.34
II. "ATTA BOY!" FACT
- Folks have given me a lot of grief that I didn't give Steele Stanwick enough credit while he was at Virginia. It's not that I didn't think that Stanwick was a great player -- he was, and the only Cavalier that I'd put on the same level as Stanwick in recent history is Doug Knight -- it's just that he always seemed to be one of the nation's best three offensive players but never the best offensive force in a single season. I'm not sure if that makes a lot of sense, or even if I'm on point with that position, but that's kind of why Stanwick was subordinated a bit on the site compared to guys like Rob Pannell and Peter Baum. (Or I could have overt upstate New York sympathies, which probably isn't a drunken accusation.) I can, however, write this statement and believe its truth should be put in stone and passed down from generation to generation: There was no better player in 2012 than Stanwick at threading a ball through a defense and giving his besties opportunities to finish. Among the top-200 point producers last season, no player approached Stanwick's 9.44 individual assist rate (the next-closest was St. John's Kieran McArdle at 6.97). Stanwick's mark last year was half an assist better than Jeremy Boltus' value in 2011 and almost an entire assist better than Pannell's nationally-leading mark in 2010. Stanwick was the most important piece to an offensive machine in 2012, heavily responsible for helping six Cavaliers shoot above 30 percent last season (minimum: 30 shots). In the end, Stanwick's greatness was not just his talent, but his talent in making the guys around him so much better. He was a true attack, a quarterback with vision and an innate ability to make things happen.
III. "YOU'RE GROUNDED UNTIL YOU QUALIFY FOR THE AARP!" FACT
- It was freaky awkward not seeing Virginia play with the kind of pace that we have all grown accustomed to over the years. Hell, the Cavaliers' NCAA Tournament game against Princeton was one of the sloppiest messes of horror that didn't involve Bela Lugosi or people screaming callbacks in a darkened theater while wearing fishnet stockings. On the year, Virginia only played about 64 possessions per 60 minutes of play, a mark that ranked the Cavaliers 42nd in the country. That . . . that just doesn't feel good. The Cavaliers' pace actually pushed them out of the top 10 in the "Fun Factor" scale, which, yeah, I don't know either. It's really hard to create pace (and Dom Starsia talked about that at points last year), and when you're taking a bunch of shots per offensive possession and not slapping on a ferocious ride, pace is going to falter a little bit. I guess what I'm getting at is this: Virginia not racing is a frowny face, but it's understandable why the Cavaliers didn't really "go" a lot in 2012.
IV. MR. FIX-IT HAS A ONE-FIX ENGAGEMENT, AND IT'S . . .
- Starsia has a lot of pieces he needs to replace in 2013: Stanwick, Colin Briggs, Chris Bocklet, Matt Lovejoy, and Rob Fortunato (to name a few). That's not going to be easy, but there's lots of talent still hanging around Charlottesville. The biggest thing that Virginia needs to address, however, is finding an offensive identity that doesn't include Stanwick working from "X" and from goal-line extended. That had been a hallmark of the club for many years and now it's gone. I'm not sure how Starsia and Marc Van Arsdale get that done, but that has to be Priority One entering the fall season.
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Eulogizing the 2012 College Lacrosse Season: (11) Johns Hopkins
You spent the better part of four months meticulously dissecting the 2012 college lacrosse season. You shouldn't stop now because cold turkey is a bad way to go through life, man. College Crosse is providing decompression snapshots of all 61 teams and their 2012 campaigns, mostly because everything needs a proper burial.
I. VITAL SIGNS
Team: Johns Hopkins Blue Jays
2012 Record: 12-4 (Hopkinspendent)
2012 Strength of Schedule (Efficiency Margin): 2.66 (6)
2011 Strength of Schedule (Efficiency Margin): 1.83 (11)
Winning Percentage Change from 2011: -6.25%
2012 Efficiency Margin: 7.33 (11)
Efficiency Margin Change from 2011: -0.97
II. "ATTA BOY!" FACT
- Have you ever walked through a swarm of bees, wearing only a pair of panties, and wished that your life had turned out differently? (Asking for a friend.) That is kind of what it was like to face Hopkins' defense in 2012. The Jays were among the top-three defensive units in the land, crushing faces all over the place: It ranked third in adjusted defensive efficiency; fifth in defensive assist rate; 13th in raw defensive shooting rate; sixth in shots faced per defensive possession; 15th in man-down kill rate; and first in ride. This is impressive on its own, but when viewed in the context of how Johns Hopkins played its games -- the Blue Jays played about four-and-a-half more offensive possessions per 60 minutes of play than their opponents -- you can see that the ability of Hopkins' defense simply suffocated a lot of their opponents into submission. Chris Lightner, Tucker Durkin, Gavin Crisafulli, Jack Reilly, Marshall Burkhart . . . these are pure defensive weapons, limited in their exposure but maximized in their performance, that drove the Jays to the NCAA Tournament and kept Hopkins in the national discussion even when the team's offensive unit went through prolonged struggles.
III. "YOU'RE GROUNDED UNTIL YOU QUALIFY FOR THE AARP!" FACT
- Quick question: Other than "Give Zach Palmer the ball and hope for the best," what the hell was Hopkins' offensive strategy in 2012? John Greeley becoming the victim of knee treachery (again) didn't help the Jays' offensive approach, nor did Chris Boland having a treacherous collarbone. However, it's not like Hopkins didn't have a cupboard full of offensive options to step in and find some consistency. This is a unit that finished the year ranked only 29th in raw offensive shooting rate and, in the overall, 27th in adjusted offensive efficiency. (Admittedly, Hopkins did play a schedule featuring difficult opposing defenses (the schedule ranked 11th in that metric). However, the adjusted efficiency value accounts for that slate.) The consequence of Hopkins' uneven offensive efforts are transparent: In the Blue Jays' four losses this season, three of those defeats saw Hopkins' offense register offensive efficiency values that are usually equated with diuretics -- Maryland (17.65 and 16.13) and Navy (6.25). The lack of production (in spots) from the midfield, the struggles in sharing the ball, the dodge/re-dodge strategy that only came with average results . . . this is why Hopkins couldn't have really nice things last year despite playing with arguably the best defensive unit in the country.
IV. MR. FIX-IT HAS A ONE-FIX ENGAGEMENT, AND IT'S . . .
- Don't step on any exposed nails at the new Cordish Lacrosse and Space Exploration Center. Johns Hopkins returns as many assets as any team in the country, and with Dave Pietramala at the helm, the Jays are going to be fine. However, this is still a program that hasn't been to Championship Weekend since 2008 and it needs to learn how to get past the quarterfinals again. I wouldn't expect the Jays' offense to go through the struggles that it had in 2012, but if they do, there could be a lot of extra-miserable people at Homewood Field.
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Eulogizing the 2012 College Lacrosse Season: (12) Cornell
You spent the better part of four months meticulously dissecting the 2012 college lacrosse season. You shouldn't stop now because cold turkey is a bad way to go through life, man. College Crosse is providing decompression snapshots of all 61 teams and their 2012 campaigns, mostly because everything needs a proper burial.
I. VITAL SIGNS
Team: Cornell Big Red
2012 Record: 9-4 (4-2, Squash at Noon? Conference)
2012 Strength of Schedule (Efficiency Margin): 0.96 (24)
2011 Strength of Schedule (Efficiency Margin): 1.62 (17)
Winning Percentage Change from 2011: -13.12%
2012 Efficiency Margin: 6.65 (12)
Efficiency Margin Change from 2011: -6.06
II. "ATTA BOY!" FACT
- After Rob Pannell caught a flat tire against Army, things could have really fallen apart for the Big Red in 2012 (at least offensively). As much as any player in the country, Pannell was the primary cog to an offense that had the ability to go all Moonraker on college lacrosse: He could hurt the feelings of opposing goalies all by himself; he could spread the emotional trauma around, getting the entirety of the offense into the show; and his presence simply forced opposing defenses to concentrate on him, allowing guys like Connor English and Roy Lang to work with a little more room and presence. Despite everything that Pannell meant to Cornell, the Big Red held it all together on the offensive end, finishing the year ranked seventh in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. It's not just where the unit finished in terms of efficiency that's impressive; it's all the underlying things that are noteworthy: (1) Pannell had become a heavy usage/ball carrying machine for Cornell, yet the Big Red were in the top-10 nationally in fewest turnovers per offensive possession in 2012; (2) The emergence of guys like Matt Donovan and Max Von Bourgondien was impressive considering they weren't allowed to operate in an offense in which Pannell drew all the attention; (3) the leveraged approach to Cornell's offense in Pannell's absence was sharp, having English and Steve Mock carry a heavier load. This was an offense that continually hammered the brick and maximized the extra three possessions per 60 minutes of play that it earned against its opponents.
III. "YOU'RE GROUNDED UNTIL YOU QUALIFY FOR THE AARP!" FACT
- The Big Red's goaltender situation in 2012 was a hot mess of taco poop, but that's not the biggest frowny face point for Cornell last season. That honor goes to the Red's three-game losing streak to end the season. Cornell was on the brink of putting itself in, at a minimum, a shot at an at-large selection for the NCAA Tournament before a three-game stretch against Brown, Princeton, and Yale. The most disastrous aspect of Cornell's el foldo in late April and early May was what happened to the Big Red's offense: A general model of efficiency throughout the year, the unit performed well below its average mark in its last three contests (marked by a 21.43 value against Brown (for context, Manhattan's (a team that was shut out twice in 2012) season adjusted offensive efficiency value was 22.00)). That's not how you cash lottery tickets and buy yachts and stuff. Combined with two other set of circumstances in those final games -- atrocious defensive performances against Princeton and Yale; eye-bleeding clearing performances against Yale and Brown -- and you have to wonder what happened to a club that drubbed Syracuse in Ithaca just before the stretch.
IV. MR. FIX-IT HAS A ONE-FIX ENGAGEMENT, AND IT'S . . .
- This is easy peasy: Let Pannell do his thing. Pannell is going to have to sit out the fall season and train on his own, so there is a bit of concern about his conditioning for the spring. However, if his performance in Vail is any indication, Red fans shouldn't have too much to worry about in terms of rustiness. Finding some form out of A.J. Fiore and Andrew West is an obvious issue, but if Pannell is able to come back and cut some fools, Cornell may be able to simply overwhelm opponents as Colgate did in 2012 (although the circumstances between Colgate last season and Cornell in 2013 have some significant differences).
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Eulogizing the 2012 College Lacrosse Season: (13) Bucknell
You spent the better part of four months meticulously dissecting the 2012 college lacrosse season. You shouldn't stop now because cold turkey is a bad way to go through life, man. College Crosse is providing decompression snapshots of all 61 teams and their 2012 campaigns, mostly because everything needs a proper burial.
I. VITAL SIGNS
Team: Bucknell Bison
2012 Record: 9-7 (3-3, Patriot)
2012 Strength of Schedule (Efficiency Margin): 1.17 (19)
2011 Strength of Schedule (Efficiency Margin): -0.86 (43)
Winning Percentage Change from 2011: -26.10%
2012 Efficiency Margin: 6.21 (13)
Efficiency Margin Change from 2011: -0.24
II. "ATTA BOY!" FACT
- Nobody came close to Bucknell's offensive accuracy this year. In fact, the government is knocking on Frank Fedorjaka's door right now to ask whether his team is using that green laser-guided radar that blows up pieces of small towns. It just wasn't the Bison's raw shooting percentage -- 37.06 -- that was impressive; it's how Bucknell got there: Only five teams took fewer shots per offensive possession than the Bison in 2012, only four teams saw an opposing goaltender stop fewer shots per offensive opportunity than the Bison, and Bucknell didn't even rely on man-up situations to buoy their overall shooting rate (the Bison played with the extra attacker at a rate that was right around the national average and their man-up conversion rate was only around the top-third in the country). This was a team of shooters, man: Among Bucknell's cats with at least 30 shots on the year, two shot above 50 percent -- Todd Heritage (50.7) and Chase Bailey (58.3) -- while two other shot above 30 percent -- Billy Eisenreich (30.9) and David Dickson (35.0). This was a deadly unit, and if they could have played with a stronger possession margin in their favor, Bucknell may have had a run in them to get to the NCAA Tournament.
III. "YOU'RE GROUNDED UNTIL YOU QUALIFY FOR THE AARP!" FACT
- A 9-7 record, which includes a 3-3 mark in Patriot League play, is a solid effort for Bucknell in 2012 considering the schedule they played. However, a three-game losing streat to start the season and losing four out of their last five has to make Fedorjaka want to destroy small things with that green laser-guided radar that he gives his offensive weapons. The losing streak to start the season was a tough way for Bucknell to go through life, dropping those games with an aggregated -4 differential (two games going to overtime). The Bisons' end to its regular season was just as morose as its start, losing to Army in double overtime and dropping conference games to Lehigh and Colgate by only a tally. The margin of error in Division I lacrosse is thin, and if things had worked in Bucknell's favor a little more in those games -- the Bison lost the possession margin game in all but one of those aforementioned six regular season losses (Bucknell actually dominated possession against Massachusetts) -- the blue and orange may have had a different kind of year-end banquet. It's the little things, people. And Bucknell had a tough time figuring all of those little things out.
IV. MR. FIX-IT HAS A ONE-FIX ENGAGEMENT, AND IT'S . . .
- The big fix for Bucknell going into 2013 is pretty easy: Build a cloning machine and replace Eisenriech, Charlie Streep, Jason Neithamer, and Nick Gantsoudes. So, yeah. Get on that, scientists. The Bison had a very good chance at being competitive within the Patriot League in 2013, but these are big pieces that are going to need to be replaced. There is lots of talent remaining for Fedorjaka to mold and develop, but losing a guy like Eisenriech -- even with Heritage and Dickson spitting fire -- isn't an easy replacement (especially with what Colgate and Lehigh are going to have next season).
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Eulogizing the 2012 College Lacrosse Season: (14) Ohio State
You spent the better part of four months meticulously dissecting the 2012 college lacrosse season. You shouldn't stop now because cold turkey is a bad way to go through life, man. College Crosse is providing decompression snapshots of all 61 teams and their 2012 campaigns, mostly because everything needs a proper burial.
I. VITAL SIGNS
Team: Ohio State Buckeyes
2012 Record: 8-7 (5-1, ECAC)
2012 Strength of Schedule (Efficiency Margin): 0.68 (26)
2011 Strength of Schedule (Efficiency Margin): 0.46 (25)
Winning Percentage Change from 2011: +3.33%
2012 Efficiency Margin: 5.68 (14)
Efficiency Margin Change from 2011: +2.24
II. "ATTA BOY!" FACT
- Logan Schuss gets all the ink for Ohio State, but the Buckeyes defense maimed folks all season. This was a gruesome unit, sitting towards the top of the country in so many metrics that it looks like a kill list from numerous sorties: a defensive assist rate of 11.16 (first nationally); a shots per defensive possession rate of just 0.87 (second in the country); a strong ride, seeing opponents clear at only an 81.02 percent rate (12th nationally); and an overall defensive shooting rate of just 25.53 percent (good for 10th in Division I). The end result was Ohio State holding all but four of their opponents below their average offensive efficiency value: Detroit (-8.06); Denver (-0.76); Massachusetts (-13.03); Penn State (-14.85); Robert Morris (-6.68); Bellarmine (-20.59); Loyola (-9.97); Hobart (-6.73); Air Force (-15.46); and Fairfield (-18.07, -3.90). This unit has been Ohio State's calling card since Nick Meyers took over the program from Joe Breschi and it may have been the best it's been under Meyers in his four-season tenure.
III. "YOU'RE GROUNDED UNTIL YOU QUALIFY FOR THE AARP!" FACT
- Outside of Schuss, Ohio State's offense was pretty drunk. It wasn't horrible, but you also wouldn't send it a card on its birthday to show that you care. The Buckeyes dominated the ball (again) this season, finishing 25th in the country in estimated time of possession and 36th in pace. Despite that kind of offensive patience, Ohio State really had trouble putting the bean in the net despite Schuss' ability to crush the souls of opposing goalies. Only 21 teams had a worse overall adjusted offensive efficiency value at the end of year and it had little to do with turning the ball over: Only eight teams saw opposing keepers make more stops per offensive opportunity for the Buckeyes and only 10 teams held a raw shooting percentage that was worse than Ohio State's 25.91 rate. If Schuss hadn't held the usage he had in 2012, the Buckeyes would have been in tough shape. The past season showed the importance of Schuss, but also reflected how far along his supporting cast needs to come if Ohio State is going to break through in the ECAC.
IV. MR. FIX-IT HAS A ONE-FIX ENGAGEMENT, AND IT'S . . .
- Nick Meyers is 31-31 since taking over the Buckeyes. Considering Ohio State's league and their schedule, that isn't necessarily a bad mark. It is, however, just about time for the Buckeyes to break through a little bit and start putting heat on Loyola and Denver in its conference. The big fix for Meyers this season is focusing on development transition: building out an offense to complement Schuss (which was hampered with some youth last season) and plugging three big holes on the defensive end in goalie Greg Dutton and defensemen Joe Bonanni and Keenan Ochwat. A .500 record is a decent mark, but the Buckeyes may have more wins in them in 2013.
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College Lacrosse Rule Proposals: Other Recommendations
The NCAA Men's Lacrosse Rules Committee made a bunch of rules recommendations last week. I'll write words about them; you read those words about them; we'll all have a sandwich afterwards and remember the great time we had writing and reading words about rules. Also, Mike LaFontaine is our spirit guide.
HEY! WHA' HAPPENED?
These proposals didn't get top billing, but at least two of the following recommendations may impact how the game is played as much as the four proposals that received headline treatment. They are as important to pace of play (the committee's primary concern underlying its recommendations) as the big ticket items, but more importantly they are an organic evolution of the game. Which is nice. Here's the juice on the final few items:
- The horn is dead! Regular substitutions -- if you want to get technical and make your eyes cross just before you start bleeding from the ear -- appears to have been rendered extinct, replaced with substitutions on the fly (which isn't too different than special substitutions).
- Not only is the horn dead, but the substitution box may expand from 10 to 20 yards. (The team bench area, however, is staying at its current dimension.)
- To assist with quick restarts and increased pace of play, teams are required to keep a minimum of six balls and a maximum of 10 balls available at each end line and sideline. There's all kinds of recommendations of how and where these balls need to be kept, but I'd rather attempt to eat a lacrosse ball covered in flaming gasoline than write those requirements on the Internet.
- If the ball returns to the defensive half of the field and the offensive team regains possession, officials have a Constitutional duty to start the 30-second shot protocol. Our Founding Fathers are grinning through their dead, wooden teeth.
- Officials will carry additional points of emphasis:
- Unsportsmanlike conduct (with respect to sideline behavior, it appears);
- The cross-check hold; and
- Faceoff players touching things with their hands.
More after the jump.
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College Lacrosse Rule Proposals: Restarts
The NCAA Men's Lacrosse Rules Committee made a bunch of rules recommendations last week. I'll write words about them; you read those words about them; we'll all have a sandwich afterwards and remember the great time we had writing and reading words about rules. Also, Mike LaFontaine is our spirit guide.
HEY! WHA' HAPPENED?
This is the kind of organic rule modification that I have been screaming about. (I've been doing my screaming about these kinds of things in the shower, so you probably didn't hear it. And if you did hear me screaming about it in the shower, you're a creepy stalker and you need a different hobby.) As part of the committee's rule proposals, provisions were put into place to push quicker restarts. Here's the meat:
- Officials are now directed to restart play with quickness. Pertinently, if an opposing player is within five yards of the player that has been awarded the bean, the whistle should blow and play should immediately begin. The opposing player is not allowed to defend the ball until he reaches a distance of five yards from the opponent. If the opposing player violates this restriction, the official will signal a violation and throw a flag for delay of game. There is an exception to this quick restart rule when the offensive team is awarded the ball in the attack area: Play will be restarted anywhere outside the attack area and the offensive team is responsible for moving the ball outside of the attack box for the restart.
- To dovetail the last point, officials are instructed to be as deliberate as possible with the exact location of the violation. An unfair distance advantage gained by the possessing team must occur to delay the restart.
- Goalies are no longer permitted to stroll without a care in the world back to the cage: The five-second grace period formerly granted to keepers (and exploited by the same group) is totally eliminated regardless of restart position.
Now this is living.
More after the jump.
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College Lacrosse Rule Proposals: Shot Clock
The NCAA Men's Lacrosse Rules Committee made a bunch of rules recommendations last week. I'll write words about them; you read those words about them; we'll all have a sandwich afterwards and remember the great time we had writing and reading words about rules. Also, Mike LaFontaine is our spirit guide.
HEY! WHA' HAPPENED?
Everyone has an opinion on whether college lacrosse should have a shot clock. Seriously. Look at the back of your Social Security card. Do you see it? It should look like this:
Do you believe college lacrosse should have a shot clock?[ ] Yes
[ ] No
[ ] Maybe
These were initially sent across the country in folded up pieces of spiral notebook paper and reeked of bad Abercrombie & Fitch perfume, but the NCAA finally settled on co-opting Social Security cards in a landmark deal with the government. (And people say that bureaucracies never get anything done. Pfft.)
Anyway, as part of the proposals published last week, it appears as if the rules committee took a compromising approach that attempts to marry a shot clock with many coaches' desire to let their offenses work without timing pressure. Here's the juice:
- When the officials signal for a stall warning, a shot must be taken within 30 seconds. There isn't going to be a visible shot clock; instead, on-field officials will administer the count. A valid shot is defined as an attempt to score that is on goal (e.g., saved by the goalkeeper, hits the goal cage, goal scored). If the 30 seconds expires without a valid shot, the ball will be awarded to the defending team. Also: The "get it in, keep it in" call was eliminated . . . WITH EXTREME PREJUDICE!
- Now, because the NCAA wants to poop in officials' pants, there's a seven -- seven! -- part protocol that referees will follow to make this shot clock thing happen:
- Officials will signal for a stall warning and start a 20-second timer.
- At the end of the 20-second timer, a bomb will explode and the President of the United States will be put in grave danger. Or a 10-second hand count will be administered by the official closest to the ball. (Probably the latter will happen instead of the former.) The official that is conducting the hand count will have the responsibility for the count until a shot is taken or time expires.
- During the 30-second countdown, situations where a shot goes out of bounds and the offensive team maintains possession will be handled like this:
- With more than 10 seconds remaining in the count, the timer continues to run and the procedure continues.
- If the timer expires before the restart, a 10-second count will be administered beginning on the restart.
- With less than 10 seconds remaining, the official shall hold the hand count when the whistle blows and continue the count on the restart.
- A shot that hits the pipe or is saved and then possessed by the offensive team nullifies the stall warning.
- In a flag down situation, the shot count will continue until it expires or a shot is taken.
- Stalling will not be called during a man advantage.
- If a shot hits a defensive team player other than the goalkeeper, it will not be considered a shot on goal.
There's also a point of emphasis here that the team possessing the ball must try and create a scoring opportunity. (I have no idea what that means.) There are exceptions to this decree: If the team possessing the ball is in the attack area and the defensive team is not playing the ball, a stall warning will not be issued until either (1) the defensive team attempts to play the ball or (2) the offensive team brings the ball outside the attack area. However, because rules are designed to be impossible to fully comprehend, a stall warning may be issued when the offensive team has the ball outside the attack area or below the goal line extended regardless of whether the defensive team is playing the ball.
Got it? No? Good. That means that you quit reading many words ago. Go make a snack. You deserve it.
More after the jump.
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