2015 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology (III)

Welcome back to our College Crosse Bracketology Tournament  Information Session, Volume III. (R.I.P. Loyola.)

We're still waiting for a few late arrivals. Just a few reminders, as we stated in our multiple emails this week, if you still have blood on your shoes from last weekend, please take them off before you enter the auditorium. Additionally, for the last time, your trap queens aren't allowed inside. We had too many fights last week. They'll have to stay outside in your Lambos and/or 'Raris.

Grab a coffee and check out the Big Board, it's updated through April 23rd. We'll get started shortly:

* Conference leaders were determined by current league record. Where there was a tie in league record, the team with the higher RPI was noted as the conference leader.

* The at-large pool was limited to teams currently ranked in the top 20 of the RPI that are potentially eligible for NCAA Tournament inclusion.

Some notes on what's up there:

• Philly Watch: Philly, we out here! Shout out to Saint Joseph's for officially making it on the Big Board after their thrilling come from behind win against Hobart. The victory propelled the Hawks into sole possession of first place in the NEC. Drexel and Villanova are currently in the top four of THUNDERDOME! and the Big East, respectively, but both need to win this weekend to ensure they aren't bumped. Pennsylvania has a bit of a tough scenario in the Ivy League to overcome to even make its league tournament. So, if you took the over on how many Philly teams make The Big Barbecue (1.5), keep hope alive!
• Play-In Games: The MAAC, Northeast, and SoCon automatic qualifiers still look like assured play-in games participants. The interplay between THUNDERDOME! and the Patriot League remains interesting, though: The teams that come out of those conferences -- likely one-bid leagues -- will have an anxious Selection Sunday wondering whether they'll have a quick mid-week turnaround. Navy and Towson are perilously close to each other.
• Johns Hopkins: Beat Maryland. Literally. If the Jays lose to the Terps this weekend, Hopkins will need to run the table in the Big Ten Tournament in order to make the NCAA Tournament field. A loss to Maryland on Saturday puts Hopkins' record at 6-7, thus creating circumstances in which either (1) the Blue Jays will finish the season under .500 and ineligible for a May adventure, or (2) Johns Hopkins will be an automatic qualifier to the show if the Jays run through Byrd Stadium as its conference champion. There is no in between for Hopkins if the Blue Jays lose to their archrivals this weekend.
• Top Eight Seeds: You remember last Friday when I had (1) Notre Dame; (2) North Carolina; (3) Syracuse; (4) Denver; (5) Maryland; (6) Duke; (7) Virginia; (8) Yale. Well this week the Selection Committee released their regular season Top 10; the top 8 were identical but for Maryland at #4 and Denver at #5. #Humblebrag. Denver earns the nod for the four-seed at the moment based on their top-end wins.
• At-Large Field: Chaos isn't a pit, it's a ladder. (#TeamLittleFinger.) There are presumably four at-large spots after the inclusion of the ACC's non-champions, and Yale and Cornell are tentatively taking up two invitations. That leaves two spots for some combination of Brown, Ohio State, Georgetown, Marquette, Colgate, and Hopkins. I think Ohio State and Brown have the best shot at the moment for those positions as they have the best win out of that group, but there is a lot of lacrosse left and conference tournaments will likely impact this analysis. It will also be interesting to see how Georgetown factors into the bracket -- the Hoyas don't have any bad losses, but also lacks a huge victory. Is Georgetown more attractive than Ohio State or Brown based on a better loss profile than win profile? (Importantly, the Hoyas also have a stronger strength of schedule -- according to the RPI -- than Ohio State and Brown.)