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The regular season is winding down, you guys, and that means that NCAA Tournament projection season is in full swing. A few guys out there do a pretty good job at projecting the field:
- Terry Foy of Inside Lacrosse checked in with his latest projection on Tuesday;
- Patrick Stevens of seemingly everywhere (hire him, people!) unleashed his projection at Lacrosse Magazine on Monday (with the help of LaxPower's Dr. Feldman); and
- Brian Coughlin, a contributor to Inside Lacrosse, published his projection yesterday.
- College Crosse community member, and chaperone for the Reverse Survivor prom, "burnspbesq" dropped his latest projection on Monday.
You should read those things. They'll help the melon stuck in your skull figure things out.
I, however, am not one of those guys that are good at projecting what the Selection Committee is going to do in a few weeks. The reason is simple: I kind of despise the primary criteria that the NCAA allows that group to use to formulate a bracket. Due to this blind rage, I often fail miserably at trying to guess what is going to happen, mostly because anger isn't a great co-pilot to logic (or illogic, as we're talking about the RPI). So, instead of trying to project what the field is going to look like at the beginning of May, I'm going in a different direction: What the field might look like in a perfect universe. (Please note: A perfect universe entails me making all the rules and everyone simply accepting the consequences without rebuttal.)
Here's how this is going to work:
- Projected conference champions are included in the field based on their current adjusted efficiency margin ranking. So, while Loyola is likely nose-to-nose with Denver in the ECAC, the nod goes to the Pioneers right now because they're ranked second in the metric.
- The eight at-large teams are selected on series of metrics, including adjusted efficiency margin (because this tells us how well teams have actually performed in their games relative to competition played), Pythagorean win expectation (because the best teams should win the most games), significant wins (top 20) and losses (bottom 20) based on the opponent's current adjusted efficiency margin ranking, trength of schedule (based on opponent efficiency margin and Pythagorean win expectation), head-to-head results are, of course, considered, and finally a determination around which school boasts the best local chicken wing joint. No one metric is more important than the other, but there is a light ordering to the process.
- Remember: This is not how the NCAA does things. It's merely how I might do things. This post really has no value. Sorry.
Ready? No? Too bad. Let's go!
CONFERENCE CHAMPIONS
This may change in a few weeks, but as of right now these teams will have a fancy banner in their trophy case based on winning their super handsome league:
| LEAGUE | TEAM | ADJ. EFF. MARGIN RANK. | PYTH. WIN EXP. RANK | SIG. WINS | SIG. LOSSES | OPP. EFF. MARGIN RANK | OPP. PYTH. WIN EXP. RANK |
| Ivy | Cornell | 15.55 (1) | 82.72% (1) | Yale (14); Pennsylvania (13) | N/A | -0.34 (36) | 52.79% (26) |
| ECAC | Denver | 13.19 (2) | 75.01% (6) | Duke (10); Lehigh (9); Pennsylvania (13); Bellarmine (19); Loyola (5) | N/A | 2.65 (8) | 59.29% (5) |
| Big East | Notre Dame | 10.17 (6) | 76.62% (5) | Duke (10); Penn State (15); North Carolina (3); Denver (2) | N/A | 2.65 (7) | 56.96% |
| Patriot | Lehigh | 8.38 (9) | 70.35% (8) | Penn State (15); Army (18); Bucknell (11) | N/A | 0.56 (27) | 52.04% (28) |
| America East | Albany | 7.01 (12) | 65.07% (19) | Syracuse (7); Johns Hopkins (17) | N/A | -0.97 (41) | 50.71% (34) |
| THUNDERDOME! | Penn State | 6.36 (15) | 67.96% (13) | Denver (2); Bucknell (11) | N/A | 1.50 (21) | 54.05% (22) |
| MAAC | Marist | 1.81 (29) | 54.68% (29) | N/A | Delaware (40) | -4.87 (61) | 39.18% (60) |
| NEC | Bryant | -3.17 (41) | 41.18% (42) | N/A | Vermont (54) | 0.38 (29) | 49.74% (35) |
These are ordered based on where the "conference champion" currently sits in the adjusted efficiency margin rankings (e.g., Cornell is currently ranked higher than Denver, so the Ivy League comes before the ECAC). This is potentially telling with respect to how I'd organize a bracket. Or not. Intrigue!
AT-LARGE POOL
There are eight at-large positions up for grabs. Some of these are clearly locks, but some are still questionable. To keep this relatively manageable, I'm putting just 11 teams in the at-large pool for now, because, once again, I'm in charge and the rules are whatever I want them to be. That means that three teams are stuck doing wind sprints in May while everyone else has a super fun imaginary time. Here's how these 11 teams stack up:
| LEAGUE | TEAM | ADJ. EFF. MARGIN RANK. | PYTH. WIN EXP. RANK | SIG. WINS | SIG. LOSSES | OPP. EFF. MARGIN RANK | OPP. PYTH. WIN EXP. RANK |
| ACC | North Carolina | 13.04 (3) | 78.52% (2) | Princeton (8); Maryland (4); Johns Hopkins (17); Hofstra (16) | N/A | 3.91 (2) | 62.26% (2) |
| ACC | Maryland | 11.64 (4) | 77.30% (3) | Loyola (5); Duke (10) | N/A | 2.13 (12) | 57.27% (11) |
| ECAC | Loyola | 11.54 (5) | 76.83% (4) | Bellarmine (19) | N/A | 1.80 (18) | 55.50% (17) |
| Big East | Syracuse | 9.07 (7) | 71.01% (7) | Army (18); St. John's (20); Johns Hopkins (17); Princeton (8); Cornell (1) | N/A | 1.83 (17) | 55.82% (15) |
| Ivy | Princeton | 8.49 (8) | 68.44% (11) | Hofstra (16); Johns Hopkins (17); Yale (14) | N/A | 1.94 (15) | 58.48% (7) |
| ACC | Duke | 8.12 (10) | 67.27% (15) | Loyola (5); North Carolina (3) | N/A | 2.60 (11) | 56.58% (13) |
| Patriot | Bucknell | 7.25 (11) | 68.69% (10) | Cornell (1); Albany (12); Army (18) | Mount St. Mary's (51) | 1.95 (14) | 54.72% (20) |
| Ivy | Pennsylvania | 6.70 (13) | 68.91% (9) | Duke (10); Lehigh (9); Princeton (8) | N/A | 5.34 (1) | 62.69% (1) |
| Ivy | Yale | 6.40 (14) | 67.19% (16) | Albany (12); Pennsylvania (13) | N/A | 3.33 (6) | 57.80% (9) |
| THUNDERDOME! | Hofstra | 6.23 (16) | 67.79% (14) | Notre Dame (6) | N/A | 1.65 (19) | 55.03% (19) |
| Independent | Johns Hopkins | 6.21 (17) | 66.81% (17) | Maryland (4) | N/A | 1.85 (16) | 55.33% (18) |
Based on this, Hofstra and Johns Hopkins are out for a couple of reasons, but mostly because they don't have as many quality wins as the two Ivy League teams ahead of them (but their quality wins are arguably better) and also because they've played weaker schedules. The relative quality of Pennsylvania, Yale, Hofstra, and Johns Hopkins is fairly even, but the other metrics balance toward the Quakers and Elis rather than the Pride and Blue Jays.
As for the Yale-Pennsylvania issue to determine the last team in this bracket-that-doesn't-exist-because-it-doesn't-use-anything-the-NCAA-requires, Yale holds the head-to-head but the Quakers have played a harder schedule and have more quality wins. Good for you, Pennsylvania: You made the cut in something that doesn't matter!
BRACKET
This is the hardest part of this exercise in total uselessness. Here's how I guess I'd go about this (again, I'm not taking into account the flight rule because I haven't taken into account any other damn rule):
(1) Notre Dame
(U) Bryant
(8) Duke
(U) Lehigh
(4) Maryland
(U) Albany
(5) Cornell
(U) Princeton
(3) North Carolina
(U) Bucknell
(6) Syracuse
(U) Penn State
(2) Denver
(U) Marist
(7) Loyola
(U) Pennsylvania
This is where you probably explode. Go for it. Remember, though: This is all imaginary.