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2015 MAAC Lacrosse Tournament Preview

The MAAC opens its tournament with Marist in the pole position.

Everything that's worth knowing about the MAAC Tournament.

Participants

2015 MAAC TOURNAMENT
SEED TEAM MAAC RECORD LEAGUE WINS LEAGUE LOSSES
1. Marist 6-0 Monmouth, Canisius, Quinnipiac, Detroit, Manhattan, Siena None
2. Quinnipiac 4-2 Detroit, Manhattan, Canisius, Monmouth Siena, Marist
3. Detroit 4-2 Manhattan, Monmouth, Siena, Canisius Quinnipiac, Marist
4. Monmouth 3-3 Siena, Canisius, Manhattan Marist, Detroit, Quinnipiac

Times, Dates of Matchups

Thursday, April 30, 2015 (Semifinals -- at Marist):

  • (3) Detroit v. (2) Quinnipiac: 4:00 PM (ET)
  • (4) Monmouth v. (1) Marist: 7:00 PM (ET)

Saturday, May 2, 2015 (Championship -- at Marist):

  • Semifinal I Winner v. Semifinal II Winner: 2:00 PM (ET)

Television/Internet

MAAC.tv will broadcast the semifinal doubleheader while ESPN3 -- simulcast from a Time Warner Cable Sports Channel broadcast -- will carry the league's championship game.

League Tournament Spirit Animal

The evolution of man chart.

Conference Attribute Profile

Here's how MAAC compares to the rest of the nation:

THE MAAC: 2015 CONFERENCE ATTRIBUTE PROFILE
LEAGUE LEAGUE STRENGTH RANK INTERNAL COMPETITIVENESS RANK AVG. WIN% RANK
MAAC 35.39% 10/10 0.2055 8/10 42.11% 8/10

Truncated Scouting Reports

The stylistic profiles of the MAAC Tournament's participants looks as follows:

THE MAAC: 2015 TRUNCATED SCOUTING REPORTS
METRIC MARIST QUINNIPIAC DETROIT MONMOUTH
Estimated Pace 60.77 (49) 60.44 (50) 64.83 (27) 54.46 (67)
Estimated Opportunities per 60 Minutes Margin +3.28 (14) -3.91 (63) -1.76 (48) -2.00 (50)
Estimated Lost Functional Opportunities Margin Ratio +4.63% (20) -0.22% (39) -9.08% (62) +2.12% (30)
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency 35.64 (17) 30.96 (37) 30.77 (39) 24.59 (62)
Shots per Offensive Opportunity 1.11 (40) 1.21 (18) 1.09 (44) 1.19 (19)
Ratio of Shots on Goal to Total Shots per Offensive Opportunity 61.85% (14) 60.76% (18) 62.67% (11) 52.09% (68)
Offensive Shooting Rate 33.53% (9) 26.46% (50) 28.89% (28) 21.38% (64)
Offensive Assist Rate 21.83 (12) 23.04 (8) 17.03 (42) 10.85 (64)
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency 28.15 (16) 37.03 (61) 30.88 (34) 28.35 (18)
Shots per Defensive Opportunity 1.27 (62) 1.22 (58) 1.24 (61) 1.17 (48)
Ratio of Shots on Goal to Total Shots per Defensive Opportunity 51.18% (1) 59.10% (36) 61.19% (57) 58.60% (33)
Defensive Shooting Rate 21.37% (1) 29.55% (45) 23.69% (6) 22.33% (2)
Defensive Assist Rate 16.63 (25) 21.90 (63) 17.51 (35) 11.99 (2)
Faceoff Percentage 54.83% (18) 40.45% (63) 45.70% (47) 40.53% (62)
Clearing Percentage 87.30% (19) 86.67% (27) 88.09% (11) 81.61% (54)
Turnover Margin +4.48 (23) -0.18 (37) -7.24 (56) -0.83 (41)
"Run of Play" Groundballs Margin +0.82 (27) +1.39 (24) -0.47 (38) +0.28 (32)
Penalties Margin -2.23 (65) +0.25 (28) -0.47 (45) +1.41 (12)
Saves per 100 Defensive Opportunities 37.72 (16) 35.95 (22) 46.31 (1) 42.51 (3)
Team Save Percentage 58.24% (6) 50.00% (45) 61.28% (2) 61.90% (1)

Three Things

  • The Red Foxes are seeking their second NCAA Tournament appearance, providing a complement to the program's 2005 trip to The Show. Marist has been in a solid position in the past to earn an invitation to The Big Barbeque -- the Red Foxes have participated in the last five MAAC Tournaments and were seeded second or better three times in the last half-decade -- but the team has not had the kind of preferable circumstances that the Red Foxes will operate within this season: As the host and odds-on favorite to rush through the event, Marist is on the precipice of starting a May adventure.
    log5 PROBABILITIES: PROBABILITY OF WINNING THE MAAC TOURNAMENT
    RANK TEAM PROBABILITY
    1. Marist 63.62%
    2. Detroit 21.36%
    3. Monmouth 8.15%
    4. Quinnipiac 6.86%
    The MAAC Tournament does have a bit of a history of underseeded teams winning the conference's championship -- the team with the lower seed in the title game has collared half of the last 10 MAAC Tournament crowns -- but the Red Foxes are head and shoulders above its peers in this event, such a heavy favorite that a charge from Monmouth or Quinnipiac would probably tear a hole in the spacetime continuum. This is Marist's moment; anything that withholds the Red Foxes from the NCAA Tournament would be a massive shock.
  • There is an interesting dynamic in the Detroit-Quinnipiac semifinal game: Quinnipiac's predilection for putting shots on cage despite the team's difficulty in finding twine versus Detroit's reliance on Jason Weber to stop anything that leaves a crosse and heads in his general direction. The Titans aren't afraid to yield shots on goal given Weber's incredible talent for turning away attempts while the Bobcats don't shy away from peppering the cage. The variable in this relationship may turn on a somewhat ignored aspect of play: Quinnipiac has done an excellent job at creating assists this season, generating helpers at a rate that ranks among the nation's best; Detroit's defense has permitted assisted goals on a per-possession basis that ranks right around the national average. If the Bobcats are able to get its weapons into positions to beat Weber, can Weber stand on his head and stone the hardest shots to stop in college lacrosse? All of the Bobcats' goals against the Titans in the regular season meeting between the two teams were assisted, thus providing at least an indicia of evidence that this dynamic could impact the eventual result.
  • Monmouth has some serious offensive issues, these problems relevant in numerous efficiency aspects. Playing within a possession deficit has exacerbated the Hawks' trouble with making the scoreboard blink, and Monmouth may really need to lean on its defense and a deflated pace to keep within striking distance of a far superior Marist team. Brian Fisher has done a nice job getting the Hawks to the position that they're in at this stage in the program's existence, but . . . Monmouth is in a bar fight with a guy that deadlifts Buicks in his free time. The Hawks are looking at about a six-goal deficit against the Marist, and given that Monmouth fell to the Red Foxes 3-10 in the regular season meeting between the schools, the projected result feels reasonable. There will be days when the Hawks will be the hammer and some poor fool will be the nail, but Poughkeepsie doesn't look like it will exhibit one of those days.