This is probably it for the 2015 iteration of Reverse Survivor. Two teams are still contesting for their first Division I victory this season,1 but one has an opportunity that the other lacks: NJIT visits Riverdale today and Manhattan -- a team that has been outscored 162-47 this year and was blanked at Hofstra -- is on the verge of giving itself a victory parade. If the Jaspers fail to generate a win today in the shadow of the 1 train, Reverse Survivor will have become a soulless vacuum of hope.
The Final Two: Reverse Survivor's Remaining Participant Pool
Next Opponent: NJIT -- March 31st
Chance of Victory: The Massey Ratings give Manhattan an 86 percent chance of victory today with a mean score of 11-6 in the Jaspers' favor. This is as good as it gets for Manhattan the rest of the way: Based on production through this past weekend, the Jaspers are seated as underdogs in their last four regular season games with the team's highest win probability -- 25 percent -- coming this weekend when the Jaspers host Quinnipiac. The Jaspers have to wrestle defeat to the ground and make it beg for mercy; 10 straight losses with the glimmering light of favorable circumstances is too important to not dominate.
Next Reasonable Chance of Victory: NJIT -- March 31st. Anything past the Highlanders would require Manhattan to yank an upset. The Jaspers have a proclivity for this -- the team beat Marist in 2014 and 2013, games in which the Jaspers held 24 percent and 13 percent win probabilities, respectively -- but resting on the potential to drop a team with superior ability isn't a standardized way to throttle through the universe.
Next Opponent: Mercer -- April 4th
Chance of Victory: According to the Massey Ratings the Keydets have a 24 percent chance of victory against the Bears with a mean score differential of about 8.5-12. Look: That isn't a great figure, but the Southern Conference is a fantastic voyage of "I don't know, either!" VMI hasn't been within four goals of an opponent since an 8-12 setback to Air Force on March 8th, but . . . why not? Mercer is riding a three-game win streak that has seen the team fell High Point, Furman, and Bellarmine by a total of four goals, and a recalibration of the lacrosse spectrum may await the Bears against the Keydets. The Keydets have lots of issues and there's no question that VMI will serve as home 'dogs to Mercer, but . . . this could happen.
Next Reasonable Chance of Victory: v. Massachusetts-Lowell -- April 25th. The Keydets are staring down win probabilities under 25 percent until the team travels to Marywood University to take on the River Hawks. VMI stands as a small favorite bordering on a toss-up reality at the moment, but if the Keydets get to this point without a victory it could create the necessary motivation for VMI to slap math in the face.
1 New programs aren't eligible for Reverse Survivor. To include new programs in this competition misses the point as they're still learning how to get on and off the bus.