Everything that's worth knowing about Johns Hopkins-Virginia in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.
From 10,000 Feet
Date and Time: Sunday, May 11, 2014 at 1:00 ET
Location: Charlottesville, V.A.
Winner Advances To Play?: The winner of Air Force-Duke.
Television/Internet: ESPN2 has the broadcast. Also available on WatchESPN.
Game "Fun Factor": 4.96 ("Very Good")
log5 Victory Probabilities:
|Virginia||Johns Hopkins||Johns Hopkins // 59.95%||Virginia // 40.05%|
Jays-Cavaliers is going to be a war at Klockner Stadium, but the computing machine sees this as outside the realm of a true toss-up game with Hopkins as the favorite. Interestingly, when these two teams met in the regular season, Virginia earned an 11-10 overtime victory at home, using a late push in the fourth quarter to knot the scoreboard and force the extra period. Past is not necessarily prologue, but there is some interesting history between the two teams in 2014 that colors the prediction of the game.
What's Your Deal?
NCAA Tournament Appearances: 42 (Last: 2012)
NCAA Tournament Bid Type: At-Large (Independent)
Combustibles: Wells Stanwick (A) (17G, 40A); Ryan Brown (A) (38G, 13A); Drew Kennedy (FOGO) (60.3 FO%); Mike Pellegrino (LSM) (23GB, 13CT)
NCAA Tournament Appearances: 36 (Last: 2012)
NCAA Tournament Bid Type: At-Large (ACC)
Record: 10-5 (1-4, ACC)
Combustibles: Mark Cockerton (A) (45G, 15A); Scott McWilliams (D) (27GB, 23CT); Tanner Scales (D) (45GB, 18CT); James Pannell (A) (39G, 7A)
Truncated Tempo-Free Profiles
|Adjusted Offensive Efficiency||34.60 (17)||36.82 (11)|
|Adjusted Defensive Efficiency||23.67 (3)||27.85 (16)|
|Possession Margin per 60 Minutes of Play||+2.82 (15)||+1.33 (21)|
|Pythagorean Win Expectation||76.44% (4)||72.07% (9)|
|Downloadable Tempo-Free Profile (.pdf)||Johns Hopkins||Virginia|
The Blue Jays enter the weekend ranked 19th in possessions per 60 minutes of play at 66.92; the 'Hoos have a little more jet fuel in their giddy-up, playing 74.03 possessions per 60 minutes of play. Assuming that these two teams are willing to move against each other -- and that's not a given due to the fact that tournament games (both NCAA and conference) often feature deflated pace as a residue of Geppeto-esque control -- the pace of the game could pass at a decent clip. Virginia wants to go more than the Jays, but in the right circumstances Johns Hopkins isn't against attacking after identifying transition opportunities that are preferable for the Blue Jays. There are two really strong teams, and if their meeting also features fluid play between the boxes, the game takes on an enhanced character befitting a prime spot on ESPN2.
- Virginia's ride against Johns Hopkins is vitally important for the Cavaliers outside of the context of possession-generation. (The 'Hoos, though, rely heavily on their ride to create offensive opportunities. Almost 12 percent of their offensive opportunities are generated from successful rides, the fourth highest mark in the nation). Johns Hopkins has been a miserable clearing team in 2014, completing only 83.21 percent of their clears (53rd nationally), and Virginia must take advantage of the mirrored postures for a straightforward reason: Killing offensive possessions for the Jays before Hopkins is permitted to buzz around the box limits exposure of a good defense with a goalkeeping issue. The last thing that Virginia needs to see against Johns Hopkins is the Jays' offense -- one that shoots almost 30 percent on the year -- getting clean looks at the Cavaliers' defensive net. Virginia's crease play just can't sustain an onslaught from the opposition:
VIRGINIA'S GOALTENDING PROFILE (AS OF MAY 8, 2014) METRIC VALUE RANK Saves per 100 Defensive Opportunities 27.01 65 Team Save Percentage 47.44% 60 Shots per Defensive Opportunity 0.93 2 Shots on Goal per Defensive Opportunity 0.57 6 Ratio of Shots on Goal to Total Shots per Defensive Opportunity 60.94% 59 Raw Defensive Shooting Rate 32.03% 61 Raw Shots on Goal Shooting Rate 52.56% 60
- The chatter about Johns Hopkins this season has been the team's new-look offense, a change that has seen the Jays put double-digits on the board in all but two games (against Navy and North Carolina). The shape of the discussion around Hopkins' offense, though, is somewhat misleading: The Blue Jays are highly competent with the bean, but the team's efficiency lies, in part, with its mitigation of turnovers rather than an outright excellence in all phases of offensive explosion. Johns Hopkins is a very strong offensive team, but this isn't an offense on the same level as Denver (the most face-smashing offense on the planet). To wit:
HOPKINS' OFFENSIVE PROFILE (AS OF MAY 8, 2014) METRIC VALUE RANK Adjusted Offensive Efficiency 34.60 17 Shots per Offensive Opportunity 1.13 31 Shots on Goal per Offensive Opportunity 0.68 22 Ratio of Shots on Goal to Total Shots per Offensive Opportunity 60.25% 22 Raw Offensive Shooting Rate 29.95% 18 Raw Shots on Goal Shooting Rate 49.70% 25 Offensive Assist Rate 20.81 15 Turnovers per 100 Offensive Opportunities 38.79 8 Unforced Turnovers per 100 Offensive Opportunities 16.36 3 Opponent Saves per 100 Offensive Opportunities 34.34 37 Opponent Save Percentage 50.30% 25