Everything that's worth knowing about Johns Hopkins-Duke in the quarterfinal round of the NCAA Tournament.
From 10,000 Feet
Date and Time: Sunday, May 18, 2014 at 12:00 ET
Location: Newark, D.E. (University of Delaware)
Winner Advances To Play?: The winner of Drexel-Denver.
Television/Internet: ESPNU has the broadcast. Also available on WatchESPN.
Game "Fun Factor": 5.56 (Second out of four)
log5 Victory Probabilities:
|HIGHER SEED||LOWER SEED||FAVORITE||UNDERDOG|
|Duke||Johns Hopkins||Duke // 52.20%||Johns Hopkins // 47.80%|
The series history between the Blue Devils and Blue Jays isn't all that deep but it is interesting. Hopkins holds a 12-5 advantage over Duke in the teams' 17 meetings, but seven of those dates occurred before 1997 (all but one of those meetings were victories for the Jays). Since 1997, Johns Hopkins holds a 6-4 series lead against Duke with Johns Hopkins holding a 4-3 advantage in the teams' last seven meetings. In those last seven meetings (2010, 2008 (twice), 2007 (twice), and 2005 (twice)), five games were decided by two goals or less while two were dramatic blowouts where the Devils assaulted the Jays. Four of those last seven meetings were NCAA Tournament affairs with all but one -- in 2010 -- resulting in a one-goal decision.
This game is going to kick major ass if the recent series history holds.
What's Your Deal?
NCAA Tournament First Round: Beat (8) Virginia, 14-8
NCAA Tournament Championships: Nine (Last: 2007)
NCAA Tournament Record: 68-32 (68.0%)
Best 2014 Wins: Ohio State (10-9); Princeton (15-9); Albany (13-8); Maryland (11-6); Virginia (14-8)
NCAA Tournament First Round: Beat Air Force, 20-9
NCAA Tournament Championships: Two (Last: 2013)
NCAA Tournament Record: 29-15 (65.91%)
Best 2014 Wins: Denver (14-10); Pennsylvania (9-6); North Carolina (9-8); Syracuse (21-7); Harvard (17-11); Notre Dame (15-7); Virginia (17-8); Air Force (20-9)
Truncated Tempo-Free Profiles
|Adjusted Offensive Efficiency||35.03 (16)||38.56 (6)|
|Adjusted Defensive Efficiency||23.92 (2)||27.45 (13)|
|Possession Margin per 60 Minutes of Play||+2.96 (13)||+6.47 (2)|
|Adjusted Pythagorean Win Expectation||79.69% (6)||81.07% (4)|
|Downloadable Tempo-Free Profile (.pdf)||Johns Hopkins||Duke|
It's Duke's strength against Hopkins' strength, and Hopkins' relative weakness against Duke's relative weakness (although it's a stretch to qualify the Devils' defense as a wart and the Jays' offense as a scar). What's going to be interesting about the meeting is whether: (1) Hopkins defense -- one of the best in the nation -- is able to withstand extra defensive opportunities against Duke and create a sufficient number of stops to slow down the Devils' offense; and (2) Duke's defense can limit the Jays' interior looks and drive down Hopkins' offensive efficiency, thereby mitigating any inefficiency that Duke feels on the offensive end of the field. Possession margin is a factor here, but the issue turns on how volume is approached and realized.
- The problem of dealing with Duke's offense isn't limited to understanding that the Devils have a dozen offensive weapons that could brutalize a fortified compound or that the team is disgustingly efficient or that there are a host of dead-eye shooters or that the team isn't afraid to share the bean and shred defenses to pieces or that the Devils haven't blinked despite seeing strong defenses or anything else that comes to mind when watching Duke surgically and sociopathically attempt to put 20 goals on the board. The biggest issue when dealing with Duke's offense is that the team gets a zillion opportunities to unleash these things on opposing defenses and the Devils don't make mistakes in generating these opportunities. The fact that the Blue Devils are able to create offensive volume and maximize those possessions creates the structure for Duke to crush souls. It's almost unfair how good the Devils are in that department:
DUKE'S OFFENSIVE POSSESSION PROFILE (AS OF MAY 14, 2014) METRIC VALUE NT'L RANK Offensive Opportunities per 60 Minutes 37.80 1 Estimated Functional Offensive Opportunities Ratio 94.40% 8 Estimated Lost Functional Offensive Opportunities Ratio 34.93% 11 Faceoff Percentage 58.58% 9 Clearing Percentage 89.06% 10 Turnovers per 100 Offensive Opportunities 38.57 7
- The Jays -- as is Hopkins' desire -- do a great job at not only limiting shots but also limiting preferable ones. Johns Hopkins' defense is a model of limiting exposure to its keeper and allowing its keeper to make savable stops (having a strong presence in the cage hasn't hurt the Blue Jays either). The team's shooting profile illustrates this methodology:
HOPKINS' DEFENSIVE SHOOTING PROFILE (AS OF MAY 14, 2014) METRIC VALUE NT'L RANK Shots per Defensive Opportunity 1.07 23 Shots on Goal per Defensive Opportunity 0.60 18 Ratio of Shots on Goal to Total Shots per Defensive Opportunity 55.81% 11 Raw Defensive Shooting Rate 24.03% 6 Raw Defensive Shots on Goal Shooting Rate 43.06% 7 Defensive Assist Rate 14.05 9 Saves per 100 Defensive Opportunities 33.88 30 Team Save Percentage 56.94% 7