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Everything that's worth knowing about the MAAC Tournament.
Participants
SEED | TEAM | LEAGUE RECORD | LEAGUE WINS | LEAGUE LOSSES |
1. | Siena | 6-0 | Marist, Monmouth, Canisius, Detroit, Quinnipiac, Manhattan | None |
2. | Marist | 3-3 | Quinnipiac, Monmouth, Canisius | Siena, Manhattan, Detroit |
3. | Detroit | 3-3 | Canisius, Marist, Monmouth | Quinnipiac, Siena, Manhattan |
4. | Canisius | 3-3 | Monmouth, Manhattan, Quinnipiac | Detroit, Siena, Marist |
Times, Dates of Matchups
Thursday, May 1, 2014 (Semifinals -- at Marist (Tenney Stadium)):
- (4) Canisius v. (1) Siena: 4:00 PM (ET)
- (3) Detroit v. (2) Marist: 7:00 PM (ET)
Saturday, May 3, 2014 (Championship -- at Marist (Tenney Stadium)):
- Semifinal I Winner v. Semifinal II Winner: 11:00 AM (ET)
Television/Internet
MAAC.tv will broadcast the semifinal doubleheader (the link to the first semifinal is here; the link to the second semifinal is here) while ESPN3 -- simulcast from a Time Warner Cable broadcast -- will carry the league's championship game.
League Tournament Spirit Animal
Zombie ants infected with crazy brain fungus.
Truncated Tempo-Free Profiles
METRIC | SIENA | MARIST | DETROIT | CANISIUS |
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency | 28.36 (51) | 35.65 (14) | 26.54 (55) | 29.03 (47) |
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency | 31.48 (35) | 37.78 (61) | 29.19 (23) | 32.66 (43) |
Possession Margin per 60 Minutes of Play | +2.25 (16) | 0.00 (36) | -3.22 (52) | +1.35 (21) |
Pythagorean Win Expectation | 41.98% (47) | 45.51% (37) | 42.67% (45) | 40.96% (49) |
There's a reason that the MAAC ranks as the ninth strongest league in the country: The strength of the conference's membership tops out at "pretty okay." There's nothing wrong with that -- aligning with peer programs from a competitive standpoint creates opportunity -- but it does diminish the league's perception -- rightly or wrongly -- as a concern with volition. The important thing about the MAAC's four-team tournament, though, is that it provides access to the NCAA Tournament and a chance to do something seemingly impossible. The fact that the MAAC Tournament is filled with warts is less of an issue than the fact that the MAAC Tournament provides a launch pad for a program to accomplish something great. There's incredible value in that pursuit.
Predictions
RANK | TEAM | PROBABILITY |
1. | Marist | 28.61% |
2. | Siena | 24.39% |
3. | Detroit | 24.13% |
4. | Canisius | 22.87% |
Hell yeah! This is why the MAAC is the kind of fantastic that requires a pizza party that features a guy making balloon animals: The league is competitively balanced. There isn't a favorite in the conference, even though Siena ran the table in regular season league competition (it's important to note that the Saints' six MAAC victories were by an average of three goals (three games were one-goal bonanzas) while Siena's victories against Marist, Detroit, and Canisius were by an average of 1.7 goals). This tournament has pop, even if the teams competing for the conference's automatic invitation to the NCAA Tournament aren't among the nation's elite. This is an eyeball-required postseason if only because anything can -- and probably will -- happen.
Three Things
- Detroit is building the wrong kind of reputation, one that labels the Titans as a horrifically undisciplined team when it comes to ball valuation. This basic fundamental skill -- not turning the ball over -- has been Detroit's suicide in 2014, and it has drastically impacted the team's ability to generate goals:
DETROIT'S BALL VALUATION ISSUES (AS OF APRIL 28, 2014) METRIC VALUE NATIONAL RANK Turnovers per 100 Offensive Opportunities 56.03 63 Unforced Turnovers per 100 Offensive Opportunities 25.06 48 Opponent Caused Turnovers per 100 Offensive Opportunities 30.97 63 Turnover Margin -12.37 62 Clearing Percentage 79.03% 63 Estimated Lost Functional Offensive Opportunities per 60 Minutes of Play 13.87 58 Estimated Lost Functional Offensive Opportunities Ratio 49.32% 60 - It may not become a huge factor for Marist in the MAAC Tournament, but the Red Foxes are feisty to a degree that no other team in the nation can match:
MARIST'S LOOSE INTERPRETATION OF THE RULES (AS OF APRIL 28, 2014) METRIC VALUE NATIONAL RANK Penalties per 100 Opportunities 8.73 67 Penalties per 100 Opportunities Margin -3.87 67 Man-Down Postures per 100 Defensive Opportunities 16.96 67 Personnel Imbalance Posture Margin -7.48 67 Man-Down Posture Reliance 16.13% 60 Man-Down Posture Conversion Rate 36.76% 42 - Don't count out Canisius from making a run at the MAAC Tournament championship. The Griffs have pulled off two of the biggest upsets of the season despite having the profile of a team that should have only won six games this season:
CANISIUS' GOSPEL OF "THE HELL?!" OPPONENT OPPONENT PYTHAGOREAN WIN EXPECTATION (NT'L RANK) CANISIUS' CHANCE OF VICTORY (AS OF APRIL 28, 2014) FINAL SCORE Air Force 63.54% (17) 28.47% 7-6 Albany 77.59% (4) 16.69% 14-10