clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

2014 Patriot League Lacrosse Tournament Preview

New, 2 comments

The Patriot League opens its tournament with Loyola in the pole position.

Winslow Townson

Everything that's worth knowing about the Patriot League Tournament.

Participants

2014 PATRIOT LEAGUE TOURNAMENT
SEED TEAM PATRIOT LEAGUE RECORD LEAGUE WINS LEAGUE LOSSES
1. Loyola 8-0 Army, Lehigh, Colgate, Bucknell, Navy, Boston University, Lafayette, Holy Cross None
2. Army 7-1 Lehigh, Colgate, Bucknell, Navy, Boston University, Lafayette, Holy Cross Loyola
3. Lehigh 6-2 Colgate, Bucknell, Navy, Boston University, Lafayette, Holy Cross Loyola, Army
4. Colgate 4-4 Bucknell, Navy, Boston University, Holy Cross Loyola, Army, Lehigh, Lafayette
5. Bucknell 4-4 Lafayette, Navy, Boston University, Holy Cross Loyola, Army, Lehigh, Colgate
6. Navy 3-5 Lafayette, Boston University, Holy Cross Bucknell, Lehigh, Colgate, Loyola, Army

Times, Dates of Matchups

Tuesday, April 22, 2014 (Quarterfinals -- at Higher Seed):

  • (6) Navy at (3) Lehigh: 7:00 PM (ET)
  • (5) Bucknell at (4) Colgate: 4:00 PM (ET)

Friday, April 25, 2014 (Semifinals -- at Loyola):

  • Lowest Remaining Quaterfinal Seed v. (1) Loyola: 4:30 PM (ET)
  • Highest Remaining Quarterfinal Seed v. (2) Army: 7:30 PM (ET)

Sunday, April 27, 2014 (Championship -- at Loyola):

  • Semifinal I Winner v. Semifinal II Winner: 1:00 PM (ET)

Television/Internet

The quarterfinal round is web-only with both games broadcast on the Patriot League Network. Links to the league's free -- !!! -- livestream of both games is here. CBS Sports Network will carry both semifinal games and the conference's championship game live.

League Tournament Spirit Animal

A bald eagle soaring majestically and pooping on a Russian bear walking the ground below.

Truncated Tempo-Free Profiles

2014 PATRIOT LEAGUE TOURNAMENT TRUNCATED TEMPO-FREE PROFILES
METRIC LOYOLA ARMY LEHIGH COLGATE BUCKNELL NAVY
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency 42.23 (2) 30.21 (36) 31.59 (28) 26.55 (54) 29.57 (39) 31.51 (29)
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency 25.27 (7) 22.21 (2) 23.77 (5) 27.18 (14) 27.62 (15) 32.15 (39)
Possession Margin per 60 Minutes of Play +2.82 (15) +1.08 (24) +4.19 (9) +5.38 (4) -0.79 (44) 0.00 (37)
Pythagorean Win Expectation 83.09% (2) 72.18% (9) 70.71% (10) 48.20% (33) 55.26% (27) 48.45% (32)

Predictions 

log5 PROBABILITIES: PROBABILITY OF WINNING THE PATRIOT LEAGUE TOURNAMENT (AS OF APRIL 23, 2014)
RANK TEAM PROBABILITY
1. Loyola 55.78%
2. Army 20.72%
3. Lehigh 19.62%
4. Colgate 3.88%

Three Things

  • The game of the tournament -- if it comes to fruition -- may be Army against Lehigh. Those are two evenly matched teams that lean on strong defenses to pummel their opponents. The potential for a defensive war is thick, and watching those two teams battle for the right to -- presumably -- face Loyola in the Patriot League final is big. Otherwise, the Black Knights and Mountain Hawks aren't in strong positions at the moment for an at-large invitation to the NCAA Tournament and it appears that their only path to a May adventure is to secure the Patriot League's automatic berth to The Big Barbeque. To get there, though, Lehigh and Army would need to survive the tournament's most balanced game.
  • Loyola is a heavy favorite to capture the league title this season in the Greyhounds' first year in the conference. Loyola is destined -- short of total anarchy -- for the NCAA Tournament regardless of what happens this week at Ridley, but the 'Hounds could use a complete showing during the tournament to assure a high seed in the bracket. At the moment, Loyola's RPI rank is seventh (strong), its weighted RPI strength of schedule rank is 21st (not terrific), and the team holds just one RPI top 10 win -- against Duke (with Johns Hopkins in the team's windshield). The Greyhounds' don't have a perfect resume, but running through the Patriot League does potentially limit the amount of shade the selection committee may throw at the 'Hounds.
  • On Colgate: The Raiders have found a place in the top 20 of the polls this season, but Colgate seems to play to the level of their competition more than any other team in the Patriot League. In the team's eight conference games this season: (1) Colgate was significantly favored in three contests -- against Lafayette, Boston University, and Holy Cross (the Raiders fell to the Leopards and beat the Terriers and Crusaders by two goals each); (2) Colgate was a notable underdog in three contests -- against Loyola, Lehigh, and Army (the Raiders fell to all three but only lost by two to the 'Hounds and by one to the Cadets); and (3) Colgate was in toss-up games twice -- against Bucknell and Navy (the Raiders beat the Bison by one and moved past the Mids by three). Colgate is incredibly weird, and that makes them an interesting potential bid-stealer (if the Raiders can find a way to create momentum).