In my odds last week, I wrote that Massachusetts was the favorite to win the entire tournament and that the three upsets I'd take were Maryland, Denver and Princeton. So, I was right on two of my game predictions and the favorite has already been ousted from the tournament.

I like it.

In the first round, teams I had favored by my rating system won all but three games. Massachusetts had a 61.3 percent chance of moving on, Virginia was given a 34.5 percent chance to beat Princeton and Lehigh was given a 51.4 percent chance to beat Maryland. Not bad. Then again, just going by seeding, there were only three upsets as well. Enough of that. Odds for the remaining teams have been calculated.

Quick note, as always: this data is derived from my own tempo-free statistics which combine two different models. One is based on raw offensive and defensive efficiencies and adjusted for schedule. The second model is the same but uses regressed shooting rates to form regressed offensive and defensive efficiencies. Then, I adjust for schedule using those regressed efficiencies.

Math malarkey out of the way, your odds for the eight remaining teams in the National Lacrosse Tournament are encapsulated in the following graph.

You can click the image to enlarge.

Continue reading this post »

FIRST: I did not know SB Nation had a lacrosse blog.

SECOND: I'm glad SB Nation has a lacrosse blog. Yay!

THIRD: I played one season of lacrosse my senior year of high school. I was not good, but I did enjoy beating people with sticks. This automatically makes me a bigger lacrosse fan than 99.7% of the inhabitants of my home state, Kentucky.

FOURTH: Can't wait to see how the championship shapes up. I'm not a real fan of any team in particular, though I do kind of like UVa just because I have some friends who went to school there. Good a reason as any, I suppose.

FIFTH: I hate Duke.

SIXTH: Am I the only one who thinks writing "lacrosse" "LAX" is kind of dumb? Your comments and insight on the issue will probably not be ignored!

FINALLY: Looking forward to getting into the game again. If y'all need a writer with absolutely no idea what he's talking about, let me know. I'm that guy.

Unfortunately I ran out of time to continue the conference tournament odds last week, but I followed the same template and came up with odds for the national tournament.

As always, these are built off of my own efficiency rankings -- much like HoyaSuxa's or the data found at the invaluable Tempo Free Lax -- and combine two different models. One model is just raw efficiency ratings that are adjusted for schedule and the other model starts with regressed shooting rates, turns those into efficiency ratings and then adjusts for schedule. I average the two Pythagorean winning percentages that my models churn out and use that final average as their overall rating. Whether this is the best route or not is definitely up for debate, but it's what I'm rolling with right now. I did not include home-field in these calculations mostly out of laziness, to be quite honest.

That aside, who is the favorite to win the National Title using the Log 5 odds method and my computer?

Continue reading this post »

Eds. Note: I missed this yesterday from Mike. Front page'd because my eyeballs are starting to cross and fingers starting to bleed.

I say Big East and you think "Syracuse, duh." This year, however, the correct answer has been Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish won the Big East conference and, as is customary in sports, are awarded the top seed in a conference tournament. Plus, they get the baller suites in stunningly gorgeous Villanova, Pennsylvania. (I've never been there, nor have I known anyone to ever go there, so I can only assume it's stunningly gorgeous.)

As always, these Log 5 ratings are based on my own efficiency ratings like HoyaSuxa used in beating you over the head with Big East tempo-free team profiles of each of the participants. Also, RyanMcD29 has some great, pretty -- far prettier than Villanova, Pennsylvania, I'm assuming -- infographics on the tournament for your viewing pleasure right here. My efficiency models are a combination of regressed and un-regressed shooting rates. Onward and upward.

You can click the image to enlarge.

Continue reading this post »

I'm a bit late with the CAA -- err, I mean THUNDERDOME! -- conference tournament odds, but it's better late than never, right? If you want to read about each team more in-depth, all of your THUNDERDOME! goodness is encapsulated right here in this very link. Really, what more could you want? Pretty infographics, enough data to make your eyes bleed, some humor. You know, besides some Log 5 conference tournament odds.

As always, these are presented on the backs of my own efficiency-based ratings like the ones in the above link or the ones found at the great Tempo Free Lax. Mine combine a regressed and un-regressed model to arrive at a final Pythagorean win percentage. And away we go.

You can click the image to enlarge.

Continue reading this post »

Eds. Note: In the haze of tens of thousands of words on the ECAC yesterday, this flew under the radar. To the front page!

The Patriot League tournament worked out much better than the ACC Tournament did with regards to my odds posts (though, I still had Colgate as the favorites to win the game against Lehigh, it was pretty close to a coin flip). Now, the ECAC Tournament kicks off -- as you can tell by the mounds of information for your viewing pleasure College Crosse boys have whipped up for you here -- I bring my goodies to the information feast. That is, of course, tournament title odds!

As always, numbers are based on a mixture of my two tempo-free models. One is using regressed shooting rates and one does not. Both are adjusted for schedules faced, then I get an average Pythagorean winning percentage which I use in these Log 5 tournament odds.

Let's jump right into it. Your odds graph looks as such:

You can click the image to enlarge.

Continue reading this post »

Ed. Note: To the front page! Remember, folks: Instead of leveraging yourself deep into soy futures, think about an investment strategy that includes taking Bucknell and the over.

Much like the odds I ran for the ACC Conference Tournament (those turned out fantastic, didn't they?), I come bearing odds of each team winning the Patriot League conference tournament title.

My ratings are based on the same theories as the team-by-team profiles Sir Hoya Suxa presented earlier (all of your Patriot League knowledge can be found here; use it and impress your friends tomorrow when everyone you know gathers 'round to watch the tournament) and the numbers found at the awesome-sauce Tempo Free Lax.

The one difference is that I have two models, one using raw data adjusted for schedule and then one that uses regressed shooting rates and then adjusts for schedule. I average the two ratings to get an overall snapshot at each teams talents.

Without any more stalling, your Log 5-based Patriot League Conference Tournament odds look as such:

You can click the image to enlarge.

Continue reading this post »

Ed. Note: Front paged, but proceed with caution and certainly don't use such information for gambling purposes. (Unless you're putting your kidney on the line. Then, yeah, I whole-heartedly recommend use this information for gambling with your life purposes.)

With Duke's beat down of Virginia last week, the Blue Devils locked up the number one seed for the Atlantic Coast Conference tournament. That was good enough to draw them fourth-seeded Maryland. The Cavaliers will get the North Carolina Tar Heels in the first round as well.

Duke, by seeding, is the favorite. But is that actually true? First we need baseline talent levels for each team.

I have two models that are efficiency-based like the results that you see at Tempo Free Lax or when HoyaSuxa presents his data. One of my models is raw efficiency data that I adjust for schedules faced and the other uses regressed shooting for each team and then adjusts for schedules. I've averaged the results of these models together to give me my Pythagorean win percentages. My odds for each team getting to the championship game and winning it are. . .

You can click the image to enlarge it.

Continue reading this post »

Ed. Note: Scrubbing out Wagner's first win since April 2010? Yup, that's front page-worthy. Enjoy!

When a team goes winless over the span of 721 days, it's noteworthy. Thus, when a team breaks their win-less skid that lasted 721 days, it's even more noteworthy. Sir HoyaSuxa did a fine job writing up a post about Wagner's first victory of the year -- don't worry Sacred Heart, someone was bound to drop a game to the Seahawks -- but I wanted to take a deeper look in a quarter-by-quarter breakdown of the landmark victory for a mostly hapless lacrosse team.

Going into the game, Wagner had about a 12% chance of winning against Sacred Heart by my calculations using my efficiency ratings. 10% of that came from being on home field. Needless to say, they were out matched. One of the ways I like to look at individual games is using my version of a Four Factors graph. In basketball -- especially college hoops -- there are what are called the Four Factors. These four statistics are what contribute most to winning basketball games. Intuitively it makes sense. In looking through the things that contribute to winning lacrosse games at the team level, I've come across four main components*:

1. Offensive/Defensive Efficiency
2. Possession Percentage
3. Turnover Percentage
4. Clearing Percentage

Here's what the factor graph looked like for the Wagner game as a whole:

Click (all) image(s) to enlarge.

Continue reading this post »

Ed. Note: Good work here out of Mike. To the front page!

via images.lax.com

After a 13-11 defeat in Durham to arch rival Duke, Tar Heel head coach Joe Breschi decided it was time to change up the lineup. He moved stellar freshmen Jimmy Bitter and Joey Sankey into the starting lineup and paired them with junior attack Marcus Holman. The results were three straight wins over ACC foe Maryland, Dartmouth and then-top-ranked Johns Hopkins by a total of eight goals.

Then they were thrashed on the ESPN1, The Uno, in front of what I'll assume were hundreds of millions by the now-top-ranked Virginia Cavaliers. What has changed for North Carolina since moving a couple of fab frosh into the lineup?

Continue reading this post »