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Eight conference tournaments down, two to go. And we’re less than 12 hours away from the selection show.
Today, we’ll finally find out who’s in and who’s out in the NCAA Tournament with the annual selection show (9 PM, ESPNU). So with that, it’s once again time to dissect what we might see when the 17-team field is announced.
This season has been fun, exciting, weird, crazy, unusual, different, you name it. The field is wide open and the title is up for anyone to take. There might be some well-known teams, and perhaps some teams that have had good seasons, missing out once again.
If you need a refresher from yesterday, check out what the projected field looked like.
Automatic Qualifiers
There are only nine AQs, and you can thank the ACC for the odd number (please find a sixth team ASAP). If the conference champion wasn’t crowned yesterday, the highest remaining seed in the Ivy League and Patriot League takes their respective automatic qualifier.
2019 College Crosse Bracketology Automatic Qualifiers 9.0
| Team | Conference | Record | RPI | SOS | vs. 1-5 | vs. 6-10 | vs. 11-15 | vs. 16-20 | vs. 21+ | Avg. RPI Ws | Avg. RPI Ls | Significant Ws | Significant Ls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Conference | Record | RPI | SOS | vs. 1-5 | vs. 6-10 | vs. 11-15 | vs. 16-20 | vs. 21+ | Avg. RPI Ws | Avg. RPI Ls | Significant Ws | Significant Ls |
| Penn State | Big Ten | 14-1 | 1 | 8 | 1-1 | 2-0 | 3-0 | 1-0 | 7-0 | 21.64285714 | 3 | NA | Yale (3) |
| Penn | Ivy League | 10-3 | 5 | 12 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 1-0 | 7-0 | 33.2 | 5.333333333 | Yale (3) | Maryland (11) |
| Towson | CAA | 11-4 | 6 | 13 | 0-1 | 2-0 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 8-1 | 29.27272727 | 12.5 | NA | Cornell (12), Denver (13), UMass (21) |
| Georgetown | Big East | 13-4 | 15 | 27 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 1-0 | 11-1 | 40.69230769 | 16 | Denver (13) | Marquette (38) |
| Richmond | SoCon | 10-6 | 19 | 11 | 0-2 | 1-0 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 8-2 | 43.2 | 15.66666667 | Notre Dame (9) | High Point (20), Air Force (23), Mount St. Mary's (34) |
| Robert Morris | NEC | 9-7 | 24 | 19 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 9-4 | 46 | 28.71428571 | NA | Mount St. Mary's (34), Marquette (38), Sacred Heart (39), Canisius (54) |
| Marist | MAAC | 10-6 | 26 | 38 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 10-3 | 56.3 | 23.66666667 | NA | Bucknell (35), Detroit Mercy (48) |
| Lehigh | Patriot League | 9-7 | 30 | 22 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1-0 | 8-4 | 40.88888889 | 22.85714286 | Army West Point (16), Rutgers (22), Boston University (27) (twice) | Bucknell (35), Holy Cross (36), Hofstra (44) |
| UMBC | America East | 6-8 | 51 | 51 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 6-6 | 51.66666667 | 36.75 | Mount St. Mary's (34), Stony Brook (41), Vermont (42) | UMass Lowell (59) |
Georgetown, Richmond, Robert Morris, and...UMBC are all officially in the NCAA Tournament after being projected as out entering yesterday. Towson is off the bubble completely with the CAA AQ, while Penn State and Marist won their conference titles as the top seeds. Virginia won the ACC Championship, but as I mentioned won’t get an AQ because it’s the ACC. But they’re pretty much a lock.
At-Large Candidates
Eight more teams will be picked to join the nine qualifiers. Some blue-blood programs will be left out of the NCAA Tournament (ACC winner is italicized).
2019 College Crosse Bracketology At-Large Candidates 9.0
| Team | Conference | Record | RPI | SOS | vs. 1-5 | vs. 6-10 | vs. 11-15 | vs. 16-20 | vs. 21+ | Avg. RPI Ws | Avg. RPI Ls | Significant Ws | Significant Ls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Conference | Record | RPI | SOS | vs. 1-5 | vs. 6-10 | vs. 11-15 | vs. 16-20 | vs. 21+ | Avg. RPI Ws | Avg. RPI Ls | Significant Ws | Significant Ls |
| Virginia | ACC | 13-3 | 2 | 10 | 0-1 | 4-1 | 0-0 | 3-1 | 6-0 | 24.92307692 | 10.33333333 | NA | Duke (4), Loyola (7), High Point (20) |
| Yale | Ivy League | 12-2 | 3 | 15 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2-0 | 0-1 | 9-0 | 31.41666667 | 11 | Penn State (1) | Penn (5), Villanova (17) |
| Duke | ACC | 11-4 | 4 | 4 | 2-0 | 3-2 | 1-0 | 1-2 | 4-0 | 22.81818182 | 14 | Virginia (2) | Notre Dame (8), Syracuse (10), North Carolina (18), High Point (20) |
| Loyola | Patriot League | 11-4 | 7 | 9 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 1-0 | 1-1 | 7-1 | 27.45454545 | 13.25 | Virginia (2) | Army West Point (16), Boston University (27) |
| Johns Hopkins | Big Ten | 8-7 | 8 | 1 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 2-1 | 1-0 | 5-0 | 23.875 | 5.857142857 | NA | Syracuse (10), Ohio State (14) |
| Notre Dame | ACC | 8-6 | 9 | 2 | 1-3 | 1-0 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 3-0 | 22.375 | 22.375 | Duke (4) | Cornell (12), Ohio State (14), Richmond (19) |
| Syracuse | ACC | 9-4 | 10 | 14 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 1-0 | 2-1 | 4-1 | 21 | 19 | Duke (4), Johns Hopkins (8) | North Carolina (18), Colgate (47) |
| Maryland | Big Ten | 11-4 | 11 | 17 | 1-1 | 0-3 | 1-0 | 3-0 | 6-0 | 26.72727273 | 6.5 | Penn (5) | NA |
| Cornell | Ivy League | 10-5 | 12 | 3 | 0-4 | 2-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8-0 | 36.2 | 4.4 | Towson (6), Notre Dame (9) | NA |
| Denver | Big East | 10-5 | 13 | 16 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 2-1 | 6-1 | 31.7 | 14 | Towson (6) | Georgetown (15), Villanova (17), Princeton (25) |
| Ohio State | Big Ten | 8-4 | 14 | 31 | 0-1 | 2-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 28 | 17.75 | Johns Hopkins (8), Notre Dame (9) | Rutgers (22), Michigan (37) |
| Army West Point | Patriot League | 12-4 | 16 | 25 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 11-2 | 38.41666667 | 18.5 | Loyola (7) | Boston University (27), Lehigh (30) |
| Villanova | Big East | 8-7 | 17 | 7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 34 | 17 | Yale (3), Denver (13) | Drexel (28), Providence (46) |
| North Carolina | ACC | 8-7 | 18 | 5 | 1-2 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 6-0 | 36 | 7.857142857 | Duke (4), Syracuse (10) | NA |
| High Point | SoCon | 13-3 | 20 | 30 | 2-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 10-2 | 39.38461538 | 38.66666667 | Virginia (2), Duke (4), Richmond (19) | Jacksonville (40), St. John's (57) |
Bracketology Prediction 9.0
Before I unveil what I have, here’s everything you need to know for creating the bracket. The cliffnotes from the NCAA are below:
- Eligibility and availability of student-athletes for NCAA championships
- Won-lost record
- Strength of schedule index [based on team’s 10 highest rated contests; (2 games against the same opponent will count as two contests)]
- Results of the RPI
- Record against ranked teams 1-5; 6-10; 11-15; 16-20; 21+
- Average RPI wins (average RPI of all wins)
- Average RPI loss (average RPI of all losses)
- Head-to-head competition
- Results versus common opponents
- Significant wins and losses (wins against teams ranked higher in the RPI and losses against teams ranked lower in the RPI)
- Location of contests
- The committee has a travel limit guideline to no more than 400 miles for first round games
- Any media or coaches polls do not matter
Let’s do this one more time.
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Last Three In: Syracuse, Johns Hopkins, Maryland
First Three Out: Cornell, Denver, Ohio State
In terms of teams in and out, as well as the No. 8 seed, nothing has changed from yesterday. Towson and Notre Dame swap the No. 6 and No. 7 seed, while a few matchups also got moved around.
Would not be surprised if Yale gets the No. 4 seed and Penn gets the No. 5 seed if the Bulldogs beat the Quakers this afternoon.
Keep an eye out for the Patriot League title game as well. The winner will avoid the play-in game. But since we’re not making predictions of future games (outside of giving AQs to the highest remaining seed), Lehigh is currently in the play-in game.
One more thing, High Point is not getting in. Sorry.
A final Bracketology projection will be on the College Crosse Twitter account shortly after the games are done.