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2019 College Crosse Bracketology 3.0: T-minus 1 month before Selection Sunday

Maybe a clearer picture ahead?

NCAA Basketball Tournament Selection Committee Meets In Manhattan Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images

348 out of 503 games down with 155 to go. We’re done with 69.2% of the regular season. And we’re exactly one month away from Selection Sunday. Insane.

In just five weeks, we’ll have May Mayhem in college lacrosse. And with every conference having their teams play at least one conference game so far, it’s definitely time to keep dissecting what we might see when th 17-team field is announced in a month.

This season has been fun, exciting, weird, crazy, unusual, different, you name it. The field is wide open and the title is up for anyone to take. There’ll be some quality teams that won’t get seeded.

If you need a refresher from last week, check out what the projected field looked like.

Automatic Qualifiers

There are only nine AQs, and you can thank the ACC for the odd number (Please find a sixth team ASAP). Since a few conferences have had a week or two of conference play, we’ll take the top team in each conference based on the highest RPI, according to LaxBytes. Next week, we’ll transition the AQ to the team with the highest conference record with RPI as the tie-breaker.

2019 College Crosse Bracketology Automatic Qualifiers 3.0

Team Conference Record RPI SOS vs. 1-5 vs. 6-10 vs. 11-15 vs. 16-20 vs. 21+ Avg. RPI Ws Avg. RPI Ls Significant Ws Significant Ls
Team Conference Record RPI SOS vs. 1-5 vs. 6-10 vs. 11-15 vs. 16-20 vs. 21+ Avg. RPI Ws Avg. RPI Ls Significant Ws Significant Ls
Penn State Big Ten 8-1 1 11 1-1 1-0 2-0 0-0 4-0 28.625 3 NA Yale (3)
Yale Ivy League 6-2 3 4 1-1 0-0 1-1 1-0 3-0 22.5 9 Penn State (1) Penn (5), Villanova (13)
Loyola Patriot League 7-2 9 15 1-0 0-1 1-1 1-0 4-0 24 10.5 Virginia (2) Duke (10), Towson (11)
Towson CAA 6-3 11 10 0-0 1-1 1-2 0-0 4-0 27.66666667 12 Loyola (9) Denver (12), Cornell (14)
Denver Big East 6-3 12 13 0-1 0-1 1-0 1-0 4-1 27.33333333 15 Towson (11) Princeton (31)
High Point SoCon 8-2 22 56 1-0 1-0 0-0 0-0 6-2 42 49 Virginia (2), Duke (10) Jacksonville (44), St. John's (54)
Hobart NEC 8-2 23 61 0-0 0-1 0-1 0-0 8-0 52.375 10.5 NA NA
Siena MAAC 5-3 34 52 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 5-3 57.6 37.66666667 NA Fairfield (39), Quinnipiac (51)
Vermont America East 5-4 45 51 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 5-4 50.4 35.5 Holy Cross (30) UMass Lowell (49)
Data from LaxBytes from all games before 4/6

A few changes from last week. The most notable one coming with Penn State taking over Ohio State’s Big Ten auto-bid with the top RPI in the country. Other changes include Denver getting the Big East AQ back from Villanova and High Point earning the SoCon AQ over Air Force.

At-Large Candidates

Eight more teams will be picked to join the nine qualifiers. It looks like we could have a weak bubble this year with some three and four loss teams fighting for a potential tournament spot.

2019 College Crosse Bracketology At-Large Candidates 3.0

Team Conference Record RPI SOS vs. 1-5 vs. 6-10 vs. 11-15 vs. 16-20 vs. 21+ Avg. RPI Ws Avg. RPI Ls Significant Ws Significant Ls
Team Conference Record RPI SOS vs. 1-5 vs. 6-10 vs. 11-15 vs. 16-20 vs. 21+ Avg. RPI Ws Avg. RPI Ls Significant Ws Significant Ls
Virginia ACC 8-2 2 8 1-0 1-1 1-0 1-0 4-1 22.375 15.5 NA Loyola (9), High Point (22)
Notre Dame ACC 5-3 4 1 0-1 2-1 1-0 0-0 2-1 22.6 11.66666667 NA Ohio State (8), Richmond (25)
Penn Ivy League 5-3 5 2 1-1 0-2 2-0 0-0 2-0 23.6 5.666666667 Yale (3) Maryland (6), Duke (10)
Maryland Big Ten 8-2 6 12 1-2 0-0 1-0 1-0 5-0 26.75 2.5 Penn (5) NA
Syracuse ACC 6-3 7 3 0-2 1-0 1-0 2-0 2-1 21.16666667 10.66666667 NA Colgate (26)
Ohio State Big Ten 7-1 8 19 1-0 0-0 0-0 1-1 5-0 27.14285714 16 Notre Dame (4) Rutgers (16)
Duke ACC 8-3 10 5 1-0 1-1 2-0 0-1 4-1 26.875 16.33333333 Penn (5), Loyola (9) North Carolina (20), High Point (22)
Villanova Big East 6-4 13 6 1-2 0-1 0-0 0-0 5-1 28.33333333 10.25 Yale (3) Drexel (29)
Cornell Ivy League 6-3 14 16 0-3 0-0 1-0 1-0 4-0 38.16666667 3 Towson (11) NA
Johns Hopkins Big Ten 5-4 15 7 0-1 0-2 0-1 1-0 4-0 34.6 7.25 NA NA
Rutgers Big Ten 6-4 16 17 0-0 1-2 0-0 0-2 5-0 37.83333333 13 Ohio State (8) Army West Point (17), Lehigh (19)
Army West Point Patriot League 8-2 17 34 0-0 0-1 0-0 2-1 6-0 39.125 13 Rutgers (16) Lehigh (19)
UMass CAA 7-3 18 24 0-1 0-1 0-0 0-1 7-0 43.85714286 9.333333333 NA NA
Lehigh Patriot League 7-3 19 28 0-1 0-0 0-1 2-0 5-1 36.71428571 17 Rutgers (16), Army West Point (17) Hofstra (35)
North Carolina ACC 7-3 20 30 0-0 1-1 0-2 0-0 6-0 41.85714286 11 Duke (10) NA
Georgetown Big East 7-3 21 41 0-0 0-0 0-2 0-0 7-1 44.57142857 18.33333333 NA Marquette (32)
Air Force SoCon 7-3 24 47 0-1 0-0 0-1 0-0 7-1 50.42857143 21.66666667 NA Utah (50)
Richmond SoCon 6-4 25 31 1-1 0-2 0-0 0-0 5-1 47.83333333 15 Notre Dame (4) Mount St. Mary's (42)
Data from LaxBytes from all games before 4/6

Biggest Risers and Fallers

Here were the teams that had the biggest increase and decrease for their RPI.

With the win over Maryland, Penn State’s RPI got a lot better, as well as their SOS. UNC got a much-needed big win over Duke at home, which puts them back into the bubble conversation. Same with Rutgers with a road win over previously undefeated Ohio State.

On the other hand, Duke and Ohio State saw their RPIs slip. The Blue Devils nearly slid out of the top 10 and are now 0-2 in conference play. The top teams in the MAAC and America East, who are currently projected to play in the Play-In game, had their RPIs hit with losses.

Bracketology Prediction 3.0

Before I unveil what I have, here’s everything you need to know for creating the bracket. The cliffnotes from the NCAA are below:

  • Eligibility and availability of student-athletes for NCAA championships
  • Won-lost record
  • Strength of schedule index [based on team’s 10 highest rated contests; (2 games against the same opponent will count as two contests)]
  • Results of the RPI
  • Record against ranked teams 1-5; 6-10; 11-15; 16-20; 21+
  • Average RPI wins (average RPI of all wins)
  • Average RPI loss (average RPI of all losses)
  • Head-to-head competition
  • Results versus common opponents
  • Significant wins and losses (wins against teams ranked higher in the RPI and losses against teams ranked lower in the RPI)
  • Location of contests
  • Any media or coaches polls do not matter

For another week, here we go:

Last Two In: Ohio State, Villanova
First Four Out: Cornell, Johns Hopkins, Rutgers, Lehigh

I’m changing up the “Last Four In” column to just two. Reason is because I don’t think it does justice to show people the last four at-large teams in when the ALs are eight teams in total. Plus if two of them are seeded teams, it looks weird. Having two teams might be better.

So with Villanova not getting the Big East AQ, I have them just squeaking in past Cornell. The Wildcats have the better RPI and SOS and also have a top 5 win (over a team that defeated Cornell as well). ‘Nova’s average RPI wins is also better than Cornell’s. But the Big Red do have their three losses all against teams in the top five of the RPI and don’t have a loss below the top 20 (Villanova does against #29 Drexel).

Johns Hopkins and Rutgers have creeped themselves back into the conversation. And they both face each other at Homewood Field Saturday at 2 PM on ESPNU. That will be a huge game. And so is Cornell-Syracuse Tuesday night at 6 PM on ESPNU.

Despite the win over Duke, UNC still has some work to do. They also have three more ACC games left to play, which means their SOS should go up and so could their RPI.

There’s still a lot of time for all of this to change. Conference play is still early. It’s certain RPI and SOS numbers will go up and down for the next handful of weeks, which will affect team resumes.

We can smell May from here.