The Stakes: 2017 America East Men’s Lacrosse Tournament

THE STAKES: GUARANTEED ACCURATE PREDICTIONS

Using the incredible power of lacrosse computers to analyze hundreds of college lacrosse games played in 2017, the machines that will eventually join together to overthrow the human race in a bloody and dispassionate uprising have determined the likelihood of how conference tournaments will shake out this spring. Two models were utilized — the Massey Ratings and an SRS system. These predictions are guaranteed to be right, unless they turn out to be smoldering garbage.

TITLE FAVORITE: Albany (1): 78% (???)

MOST LIKELY FINAL: Albany (1)-Binghamton (3)

BLENDED WIN PROBABILITY OF MOST LIKELY FINAL: Albany (1) (85% ???)-Binghamton (3) (15%)

THREE FRIGHTENINGLY BRIEF AND INCOMPLETE THOUGHTS

1. Here are a handful of things that are true about Albany relative to the rest of the America East Tournament field: (1) Albany is a decided favorite on its home field for the balance of the weekend, regardless of opponent; (2) Albany is among the nation’s best teams, arguably within the top five, and has real NCAA Tournament progression aspirations as a competent and driven lacrosse concern; and (3) Albany has assaulted the rest of the America East and that should not be held against the Danes as a negative. Albany breaks all kinds of things when you put their profile into a simulation, and I can see a broad band of probabilities for the Danes when assessing the team’s likelihood for winning the league’s automatic invitation to the NCAA Tournament: SRS is, even with limitations put in place to manage curb-stompings, probably overweighting the Danes’ odds (due to a boring technical reason); Massey is likely a touch to heavy, but it’s understandable given how Albany relates to its potential opponents; goofing around with a log5 experiment of the McEwen efficiency ratings and peering at LaxPower’s model put Albany’s title probability at around 63%, but maybe there’s not enough “umph” in either. I don’t know — Albany is probably safely in the 1:2 odds against range to win this deal at Bob Ford Field. Other than that, Albany’s power compared to its opponents creates difficulty in find a soft landing spot that fairly assesses the Danes’ odds given that Albany is an out-sized strength compared to its peers in the America East.
2. Binghamton has had a hell of a season, even if it is one that has been spent trudging through mud at the nation’s slowest pace. Put Binghamton in a league tournament without an alpha predator — or at least one closer to their level — and the Bearcats look like a team, in the right circumstances, that could snag a berth to its first NCAA Tournament ever. That’s deflating and encouraging all at once, leveling one truth (Binghamton is a real team with a nice ceiling) against another (the ceiling isn’t high enough to feel comfortable that a conference tournament championship is within reach without something weird needing to happen). None of this implies that the Bearcats have no shot at the America East crown; rather, if any team is going to unseat Albany, it’s probably Binghamton. But it does paint a dark picture in an otherwise light-filled year — the Bearcats are good enough to compete.
3. If you’re looking for a reason to believe in UMBC to at least progress to the final, this may be the two sides of the pendants of life you seek: Against America East competition that made the conference tournament, UMBC’s aggregate scoring margin (-1) falls only behind Albany (+19) and is three goals better than Binghamton (-6). That’s . . . something, I guess. UMBC isn’t light years from the Bearcats, and it wouldn’t be extreme to see the Retrievers put a stop to the Tom Moore show and take its swing at a huge bouncer. That’s all you need — a shot, and UMBC isn’t without bullets.

POLL: BEAT THE MACHINES AND WIN ABSOLUTELY NOTHING