Hello friends. It’s your good buddy Jake Nazar here again. While I’ve blessed you with my wonderful voice on the podcast in recent weeks, I thought I’d take a dive back into sharing my remarkably insightful words in writing with you. And what a time to do so, as we’re not long away now from the start of the NCAA Division I Men’s Lacrosse Championship. The question obviously on everyone’s minds though, is: Who’s going to win it all? If you’re wondering that, you’re in luck! Because I’m here to tell you.
While every team that wins the national championship is obviously different, different in terms of talent, structure, style of play, etc. They all share similarities. They all have things they were successful at, benchmarks they hit that allowed them to become national champions. Based on recent history, if you want to be the team that lifts the trophy this Memorial Day, you’ll have to meet the same benchmarks and be successful at some of the same things that prior national champions were successful at. I’ll be looking at all the national champions since the start of the 2010 season. The beginning of a new decade seems like a good place to start, especially with some of the rule changes and changes in playing styles from teams since that startpoint. Here are those things:
- Averaged over 12 goals per game in the regular season
- Averaged under 10.5 goals allowed per game in the regular season (six of the seven national champions this decade allowed under 10)
- Average a scoring margin of 2.5 goals per more or greater
- Average over 30 groundballs per game
- Average more than 6.5 assists per game
- Have at least three players who scored 30 or more points in the regular season
- Boast a Top 5 Strength of Schedule and RPI.
From the first criteria, averaging over 12 goals per game in the regular season, we can cross out seven of the sixteen teams in the NCAA Tournament field. Those seven teams would be: Ohio State, North Carolina, Air Force, Notre Dame, Bryant, Marquette, and Towson. The nine teams remaining are: Albany, Penn State, Denver, Yale, Loyola, Duke, Maryland, Syracuse, and Johns Hopkins.
From the second criteria, averaging under 10.5 goals allowed in the regular season, we can eliminate two teams: Johns Hopkins and Penn State. That leaves us with seven teams remaining: Albany, Denver, Yale, Loyola, Duke, Maryland, and Syracuse.
When we look at the third criteria, which is whether you had a average scoring margin of 2.5 goals or greater, we can eliminate one team. That would be the Kings of the One Goal Game, the Syracuse Orange. We have six teams remaining, they would be: Albany, Denver, Yale, Loyola, Duke, and Maryland
However, we can’t eliminate any of the teams from the next three criteria. All six of those team average 30 or more groundballs per game, average more than 6.5 assists per game, and have at least three players who hit the 30 point mark in the regular season.
Finally, the last criteria is your strength of schedule. Who did you play? Every national champion this decade played a top five strength of schedule. And the only team of the remaining six who did that is the Maryland Terrapins.
So there you have it. Through this entirely scientific and foolproof formula, I have found your next national champion. It is Maryland. You may disagree, but you’re arguing against science. Maryland will reign on Memorial Day.