The Stakes: 2017 Patriot League Men’s Lacrosse Tournament

THE STAKES: GUARANTEED ACCURATE PREDICTIONS

Using the incredible power of lacrosse computers to analyze hundreds of college lacrosse games played in 2017, the machines that will eventually join together to overthrow the human race in a bloody and dispassionate uprising have determined the likelihood of how conference tournaments will shake out this spring. Two models were utilized — the Massey Ratings and an SRS system. These predictions are guaranteed to be right, unless they turn out to be smoldering garbage.

TITLE FAVORITE: Loyola (1): 71%

MOST LIKELY FINAL: Loyola (1)-Boston University (3)

BLENDED WIN PROBABILITY OF MOST LIKELY FINAL: Loyola (1) (73%)-Boston U (3) (27%)

THREE FRIGHTENINGLY BRIEF AND INCOMPLETE THOUGHTS

1. These simulations are run 10,000 times to try and ensure some degree of accuracy, but, when looking at the win probabilities above, my eyes still do that bulging thing that cartoon animals do when they have a boulder or 10-ton anvil fall on their foot or something. Two things are playing in Loyola’s favor: First, home field advantage; second, both systems really like the ‘Hounds over Holy Cross (to the tune of around a six-goal favorite). When you mash those two things together, Loyola looks pretty sound as the tournament champion. Stripping out the home field advantage, though, dilutes Loyola’s likelihood of an automatic invitation to the NCAA Tournament — the Greyhounds’ probability moves down to around 64% while the Terriers’ odds creep up to 4:1. Nothing is a slam dunk in this deal, but Loyola’s domination of the Patriot League this season is bearing out in its conference tournament odds.
2. If you’re rooting for uncontrolled chaos — and, really, there’s no other way to go through life — then pulling for the Crusaders to drop Loyola at Ridley and bash in the skulls of either the Cadets or Terriers is your nonstop banger played on repeat. Holy Cross has played above its head against both Boston University and Navy in its last two games, and seems to be charging at the right time of the season (even if math expects the Crusaders to pull back a bit). Yet, Holy Cross earning a banner would be a massive, brain-exploding upset of epic insanity, and there’s nothing greater than lunacy running around in its underpants in Baltimore. Fightin’ Judds are your beautiful sociopaths until they die.
3. Boston University-Army should be some kind of wonderful, even if the winner is more likely than not to be a ‘dog in the tournament final. These teams are tightly placed among lacrosse computing machines: Massey has the two teams ranked 20th and 21st in his power ratings; SRS has them bunched at 16th and 22nd; and McEwen has them as neighbors at 15th and 16th. This is straight toss-up territory, exactly the kind of matchup that makes conference tournament season the most terrifying portion of the year prior to mid-May. Evenly-matched with huge implications, another one-goal game (the Army topped the Terriers 11-10 at Michie in early April) is in the works. The kick in the stones here is that the game will be squashed between the two ACC Tournament semifinals — facing off at 7:30, its sunrise will conflict with the ending of what should be about a 50-50 game between Syracuse and North Carolina and its sunset will align with the final push in Notre Dame-Duke.

POLL: BEAT THE MACHINES AND WIN ABSOLUTELY NOTHING