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2016 Lacrosse Conference Tournament Probabilities and Projected Semifinal Goal Spreads

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Is your team going to win a title this weekend? If your team is Providence . . . nope!

Lars Baron/Getty Images

You guys want to some nuclear hot heat on this year's lacrosse conference tournaments?

Here's the deal: Looking at LaxPower's and Massey Ratings' projections, title probabilities were extracted for each of the eight conference tournaments facing off during this extended weekend. Favorites dominate the projections, with only Maryland in the Big Ten holding a blended title probability under 40% as a favorite (in other words, only one favorite has worse than 3:2 odds to win its league playoff). In fact, only four league tournaments feature at least two teams with at least 7:3 odds to capture hardware and an automatic invitation to The Big Barbeque. This, of course, means that Earth will definitely melt with nothing but four-seeds advancing to May while detonating a ton of C-4 on the NCAA Tournament bubble.

Also included in the below table are projected goal spreads for the semifinal games based on the Simple Ranking System model that we're calling the College Crosse Division I Lacrosse Game Picker®. Download the tool here.

NORTHEAST CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT

Conference Title Probabilities:

NORTHEAST CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT 2016: TITLE PROBABILITIES
SEED TEAM MASSEY LAXPOWER AVG.
1. St. Joseph's 41.80% 31.23% 36.52%
2. Bryant 45.79% 37.91% 41.85%
3. Hobart 5.45% 15.59% 10.52%
4. Robert Morris 6.96% 15.27% 11.12%

Semifinal Spread Projections:

NORTHEAST CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT 2016: SEMIFINAL SPREADS
MATCHUP HIGHER SEED LOWER SEED
Robert Morris at St. Joseph's St. Joseph's (-5) Robert Morris (+5)
Hobart v. Bryant Bryant (-4) Hobart (+4)

BIG EAST CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT

Conference Title Probabilities:

BIG EAST CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT 2016: TITLE PROBABILITIES
SEED TEAM MASSEY LAXPOWER AVG.
1. Denver 63.88% 41.86% 52.87%
2. Marquette 7.39% 20.88% 14.14%
3. Villanova 26.11% 29.14% 27.63%
4. Providence 2.62% 8.12% 5.37%

Semifinal Spread Projections:

BIG EAST CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT 2016: SEMIFINAL SPREADS
MATCHUP HIGHER SEED LOWER SEED
Providence at Denver Denver (-7) Providence (+7)
Villanova v. Marquette Marquette (+3) Villanova (-3)

SOUTHERN CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT

Conference Title Probabilities:

SOUTHERN CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT 2016: TITLE PROBABILITIES
SEED TEAM MASSEY LAXPOWER AVG.
1. Air Force 45.11% 42.14% 43.63%
2. Richmond 28.88% 20.76% 24.82%
3. High Point 19.11% 19.89% 19.50%
4. Bellarmine 6.90% 17.21% 12.06%

Semifinal Spread Projections:

SOUTHERN CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT 2016: SEMIFINAL SPREADS
MATCHUP HIGHER SEED LOWER SEED
Bellarmine v. Air Force Air Force (-3) Bellarmine (+3)
High Point at Richmond Richmond (-1) High Point (+1)

BIG TEN CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT

Conference Title Probabilities:

BIG TEN CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT 2016: TITLE PROBABILITIES
SEED TEAM MASSEY LAXPOWER AVG.
1. Maryland 43.27% 34.97% 39.12%
2. Rutgers 13.32% 20.44% 16.88%
3. Johns Hopkins 30.87% 29.95% 30.41%
4. Penn State 12.54% 14.64% 13.59%

Semifinal Spread Projections:

BIG TEN CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT 2016: SEMIFINAL SPREADS
MATCHUP HIGHER SEED LOWER SEED
Penn State v. Maryland Maryland (-2) Penn State (+2)
Rutgers at Johns Hopkins Rutgers (+2) Johns Hopkins (-2)

MAAC CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT

Conference Title Probabilities:

MAAC CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT 2016: TITLE PROBABILITIES
SEED TEAM MASSEY LAXPOWER AVG.
1. Quinnipiac 48.58% 38.28% 43.43%
2. Marist 33.08% 30.31% 31.70%
3. Monmouth 11.02% 14.52% 12.77%
4. Canisius 7.32% 16.89% 12.11%

Semifinal Spread Projections:

MAAC CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT 2016: SEMIFINAL SPREADS
MATCHUP HIGHER SEED LOWER SEED
Canisius at Quinnipiac Quinnipiac (-5) Canisius (+5)
Monmouth v. Marist Marist (-2) Monmouth (+2)

AMERICA EAST CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT

Conference Title Probabilities:

AMERICA EAST CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT 2016: TITLE PROBABILITIES
SEED TEAM MASSEY LAXPOWER AVG.
1. Albany 56.26% 44.86% 50.56%
2. Stony Brook 38.21% 34.19% 36.20%
3. Vermont 2.77% 10.43% 6.60%
4. Hartford 2.75% 10.52% 6.64%

Semifinal Spread Projections:

AMERICA EAST CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT 2016: SEMIFINAL SPREADS
MATCHUP HIGHER SEED LOWER SEED
Hartford at Albany Albany (-6) Hartford (+6)
Vermont v. Stony Brook Stony Brook (-5) Vermont (+5)

THUNDERDOME! CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT

Conference Title Probabilities:

THUNDERDOME! CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT 2016: TITLE PROBABILITIES
SEED TEAM MASSEY LAXPOWER AVG.
1. Towson 52.35% 36.28% 44.32%
2. Fairfield 15.41% 18.86% 17.14%
3. Hofstra 21.18% 20.49% 20.84%
4. Drexel 11.06% 24.37% 17.72%

Semifinal Spread Projections:

THUNDERDOME! CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT 2016: SEMIFINAL SPREADS
MATCHUP HIGHER SEED LOWER SEED
Drexel at Towson Towson (-4) Drexel (+4)
Hofstra v. Fairfield Fairfield (+1) Hofstra (-1)

IVY LEAGUE TOURNAMENT

Conference Title Probabilities:

IVY LEAGUE TOURNAMENT 2016: TITLE PROBABILITIES
SEED TEAM MASSEY LAXPOWER AVG.
1. Brown 66.08% 56.62% 61.35%
2. Yale 25.19% 18.90% 22.05%
3. Penn 2.97% 7.59% 5.28%
4. Harvard 5.76% 16.89% 11.33%

Semifinal Spread Projections:

IVY LEAGUE TOURNAMENT 2016: SEMIFINAL SPREADS
MATCHUP HIGHER SEED LOWER SEED
Harvard at Brown Brown (-6) Harvard (+6)
Penn v. Yale Yale (-3) Penn (+3)