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You guys want to some nuclear hot heat on this year's lacrosse conference tournaments?
Here's the deal: Looking at LaxPower's and Massey Ratings' projections, title probabilities were extracted for each of the eight conference tournaments facing off during this extended weekend. Favorites dominate the projections, with only Maryland in the Big Ten holding a blended title probability under 40% as a favorite (in other words, only one favorite has worse than 3:2 odds to win its league playoff). In fact, only four league tournaments feature at least two teams with at least 7:3 odds to capture hardware and an automatic invitation to The Big Barbeque. This, of course, means that Earth will definitely melt with nothing but four-seeds advancing to May while detonating a ton of C-4 on the NCAA Tournament bubble.
Also included in the below table are projected goal spreads for the semifinal games based on the Simple Ranking System model that we're calling the College Crosse Division I Lacrosse Game Picker®. Download the tool here.
NORTHEAST CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT
Conference Title Probabilities:
| SEED | TEAM | MASSEY | LAXPOWER | AVG. |
| 1. | St. Joseph's | 41.80% | 31.23% | 36.52% |
| 2. | Bryant | 45.79% | 37.91% | 41.85% |
| 3. | Hobart | 5.45% | 15.59% | 10.52% |
| 4. | Robert Morris | 6.96% | 15.27% | 11.12% |
Semifinal Spread Projections:
| MATCHUP | HIGHER SEED | LOWER SEED |
| Robert Morris at St. Joseph's | St. Joseph's (-5) | Robert Morris (+5) |
| Hobart v. Bryant | Bryant (-4) | Hobart (+4) |
BIG EAST CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT
Conference Title Probabilities:
| SEED | TEAM | MASSEY | LAXPOWER | AVG. |
| 1. | Denver | 63.88% | 41.86% | 52.87% |
| 2. | Marquette | 7.39% | 20.88% | 14.14% |
| 3. | Villanova | 26.11% | 29.14% | 27.63% |
| 4. | Providence | 2.62% | 8.12% | 5.37% |
Semifinal Spread Projections:
| MATCHUP | HIGHER SEED | LOWER SEED |
| Providence at Denver | Denver (-7) | Providence (+7) |
| Villanova v. Marquette | Marquette (+3) | Villanova (-3) |
SOUTHERN CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT
Conference Title Probabilities:
| SEED | TEAM | MASSEY | LAXPOWER | AVG. |
| 1. | Air Force | 45.11% | 42.14% | 43.63% |
| 2. | Richmond | 28.88% | 20.76% | 24.82% |
| 3. | High Point | 19.11% | 19.89% | 19.50% |
| 4. | Bellarmine | 6.90% | 17.21% | 12.06% |
Semifinal Spread Projections:
| MATCHUP | HIGHER SEED | LOWER SEED |
| Bellarmine v. Air Force | Air Force (-3) | Bellarmine (+3) |
| High Point at Richmond | Richmond (-1) | High Point (+1) |
BIG TEN CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT
Conference Title Probabilities:
| SEED | TEAM | MASSEY | LAXPOWER | AVG. |
| 1. | Maryland | 43.27% | 34.97% | 39.12% |
| 2. | Rutgers | 13.32% | 20.44% | 16.88% |
| 3. | Johns Hopkins | 30.87% | 29.95% | 30.41% |
| 4. | Penn State | 12.54% | 14.64% | 13.59% |
Semifinal Spread Projections:
| MATCHUP | HIGHER SEED | LOWER SEED |
| Penn State v. Maryland | Maryland (-2) | Penn State (+2) |
| Rutgers at Johns Hopkins | Rutgers (+2) | Johns Hopkins (-2) |
MAAC CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT
Conference Title Probabilities:
| SEED | TEAM | MASSEY | LAXPOWER | AVG. |
| 1. | Quinnipiac | 48.58% | 38.28% | 43.43% |
| 2. | Marist | 33.08% | 30.31% | 31.70% |
| 3. | Monmouth | 11.02% | 14.52% | 12.77% |
| 4. | Canisius | 7.32% | 16.89% | 12.11% |
Semifinal Spread Projections:
| MATCHUP | HIGHER SEED | LOWER SEED |
| Canisius at Quinnipiac | Quinnipiac (-5) | Canisius (+5) |
| Monmouth v. Marist | Marist (-2) | Monmouth (+2) |
AMERICA EAST CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT
Conference Title Probabilities:
| SEED | TEAM | MASSEY | LAXPOWER | AVG. |
| 1. | Albany | 56.26% | 44.86% | 50.56% |
| 2. | Stony Brook | 38.21% | 34.19% | 36.20% |
| 3. | Vermont | 2.77% | 10.43% | 6.60% |
| 4. | Hartford | 2.75% | 10.52% | 6.64% |
Semifinal Spread Projections:
| MATCHUP | HIGHER SEED | LOWER SEED |
| Hartford at Albany | Albany (-6) | Hartford (+6) |
| Vermont v. Stony Brook | Stony Brook (-5) | Vermont (+5) |
THUNDERDOME! CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT
Conference Title Probabilities:
| SEED | TEAM | MASSEY | LAXPOWER | AVG. |
| 1. | Towson | 52.35% | 36.28% | 44.32% |
| 2. | Fairfield | 15.41% | 18.86% | 17.14% |
| 3. | Hofstra | 21.18% | 20.49% | 20.84% |
| 4. | Drexel | 11.06% | 24.37% | 17.72% |
Semifinal Spread Projections:
| MATCHUP | HIGHER SEED | LOWER SEED |
| Drexel at Towson | Towson (-4) | Drexel (+4) |
| Hofstra v. Fairfield | Fairfield (+1) | Hofstra (-1) |
IVY LEAGUE TOURNAMENT
Conference Title Probabilities:
| SEED | TEAM | MASSEY | LAXPOWER | AVG. |
| 1. | Brown | 66.08% | 56.62% | 61.35% |
| 2. | Yale | 25.19% | 18.90% | 22.05% |
| 3. | Penn | 2.97% | 7.59% | 5.28% |
| 4. | Harvard | 5.76% | 16.89% | 11.33% |
Semifinal Spread Projections:
| MATCHUP | HIGHER SEED | LOWER SEED |
| Harvard at Brown | Brown (-6) | Harvard (+6) |
| Penn v. Yale | Yale (-3) | Penn (+3) |