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What's up, fam?! Here's my Bracketology take before Tournament Week.
Ground rules.
- I used Laxpower's RPI calculations and their WRPI SOS (weighted Strength of Schedule) numbers.
- Teams must have a top 21 RPI to be eligible for the At-Large Leader Board. (Ed. Note: Rutgers' RPI is 21. #EastCoastBias.)
Got it? Good. Let's get it.
| Conf. | Team | RPI | WRPI SOS | 1-5 | 6-10 | 11-20 | Avg. RPI W. | AVG. RPI L | RPI 1-10 W | RPI 40-70 L |
| ACC | Syracuse (AQ) | 9 | 26 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 2-0 | 25.3 | 13 | Albany & Duke | N/A |
| AE | Albany | 5 | 27 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 1-0 | 37.9 | 4.5 | Yale | N/A |
| B1G | Maryland | 1 | 3 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 3-0 | 23.5 | 5 | Johns Hopkins University, Albany | N/A |
| BE | Denver | 3 | 25 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 4-1 | 33.7 | 20 | Duke, Notre Dame | N/A |
| CAA | Towson | 16 | 61 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 39.5 | 28 | Loyola | Delaware (48) |
| Ivy | Brown | 2 | 21 | 0-0 | 1-0 | 2-1 | 30.7 | 14 | Yale | N/A |
| MAAC | Quinnipiac | 28 | 59 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 54.8 | 13.3 | N/A | N/A |
| NEC | St. Joe's | 31 | 65 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-0 | 49.5 | 31 | N/A | Robert Morris (40) |
| PL | Loyola (AQ) | 7 | 15 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 34.3 | 13 | Johns Hopkins | N/A |
| SoCon | Air Force | 18 | 40 | 0-1 | 1-0 | 0-1 | 47.2 | 8 | Duke | N/A |
| Conf | Team | RPI | WRPI SOS | 1-5 | 6-10 | 11-20 | Avg. RPI W | AVG RPI L | RPI 1-10 Win | RPI 40-70 L |
| ACC | Notre Dame | 4 | 11 | 1-1 | 2-1 | 2-1 | 26.2 | 10 | Maryland, Syracuse, Duke | N/A |
| IVY | Yale | 6 | 16 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-0 | 35.3 | 4 | Maryland | N/A |
| B1G | Johns Hopkins University | 8 | 6 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 3-1 | 27.5 | 13.6 | Syracuse | N/A |
| ACC | Duke | 10 | 1 | 1-1 | 2-1 | 1-2 | 29.1 | 14.2 | Notre Dame, Syracuse, Loyola | N/A |
| Big East | Villanova | 11 | 23 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2-1 | 33.8 | 11 | N/A | N/A |
| America East | Stony Brook | 12 | 43 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 43.3 | 16.7 | N/A | Marist (42) |
| Patriot League | Navy | 13 | 28 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 2-0 | 38.3 | 18 | Loyola | N/A |
| NEC | Bryant | 14 | 32 | 1-0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 42.3 | 22.3 | Brown | N/A |
| Big East | Marquette | 15 | 23 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 1-0 | 38.1 | 12.5 | N/A | N/A |
| ACC | UNC | 17 | 4 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 30.6 | 15.8 | Duke, Notre Dame, Johns Hopkins University | N/A |
| Patriot League | Bucknell | 19 | 35 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 39.8 | 18.2 | N/A | Colgate (53) |
| B1G | PSU | 20 | 17 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 34.9 | 17.1 | Denver | N/A |
| B1G | Rutgers | 21 | 39 | 0-1 | 1-0 | 1-1 | 42.2 | 20 | Johns Hopkins University | N/A |
Some Notes.
- Philly Watch: Looks like St. Joe's and Villanova have decent chance to make the Big BBQ this year. Additionally, though not on the Big Boards, Drexel and Penn are still alive in the CAA & Ivy Tournament, respectively.The over/under on the number of Philly teams in the tournament was 2.5 in the beginning of the season, so the over is still in play! (#WeDoNotEndorseGambling!)
- Play-In Games: According to the NCAA rules for the tournament the "four lowest-ranked automatic qualifying teams as determined by the committee, regardless of conference RPI, will compete in two preliminary games to determine the final two AQ spots."
If I had to guess now, I believe the winner of the MAAC, NEC, SoCon, and CAA conference tournament will play in the 2 play-in games this year.
- #1 Overall Seed: I think it'll depend on how far Maryland gets in the B1G Tournament. Maryland probably just needs to get to the B1G title game to secure the Big BBQ's #1 seed. I believe they can lose the title game and still get the #1 seed, even if Denver wins the Big East AQ.
The only possibility I see for Denver to get the top seed is if the Pioneers win the Big East Tournament and Maryland loses against PSU today. In that scenario, I think the door is open enough for Denver to get the top seed. Both have impressive records against the top 20 RPI, however I believe Maryland's strong SOS as compared to Denver's will carry the Terps to the #1 seed.
- 8 At-Large Bids: Notre Dame, Duke, Johns Hopkins University, Yale, UNC, Navy, Villanova, and Penn State. (Ed. Note: Nittany Lions would need to beat the Terps. Otherwise, the last bid will go to the Marquette vs Villanova loser.)
- Top 8 seeds: I believe the top 8 seeds on Selection Sunday will be (1) Maryland, (2) Denver, (3) Brown, (4) Syracuse, (5) Notre Dame, (6) Duke, (7) Johns Hopkins University, and (8) Loyola.
Brackets
Columbus Region
#2 Denver vs. Towson/ Air Force
#7 Johns Hopkins vs. Navy
#3 Notre Dame vs. Marquette
#6 Duke vs. North Carolina
Providence Region
#1 Maryland vs. Quinnipiac/St. Joe's
#8 Loyola vs. Albany
#4 Brown vs. Penn State
#5 Syracuse vs. Yale