2015 NCAA Lacrosse Tournament Preview: Marist at (2) Syracuse

Everything that's worth knowing about Marist-Syracuse in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.

Date and Time: Sunday, May 10, 2015 at 7:30 PM (ET)
Location: Syracuse, NY
Winner Advances To Play?: The winner of Johns Hopkins-Virginia
Television/Internet: ESPNU/WatchESPN; Eamon McAnaney and Paul Carcaterra have the call
Game "Fun Factor": 5.50 ("Sneaky Good")
Massey Ratings Victory Probabilities:

Syracuse is a big ol' favorite in the Carrier Dome on Sunday night, but likely isn't as strong of a favorite as the Massey Ratings project. A log5 analysis using tempo-free metrics tags the Orange with about a 70 percent chance of victory, a value that appears a little more grounded in reality. Regardless, Syracuse is a heavy favorite holding a significantly greater probability for victory in its first round game compared to last season. A Red Foxes win in this spot would probably tear a hole in the space-time continuum.

Syracuse
NCAA Tournament Appearances: 35 (Last: 2014)
NCAA Tournament Championships: 11* (Last: 2009)
NCAA Tournament Bid Type: Automatic Qualifier (ACC)
Record: 12-2 (2-2, ACC)
Combustibles: Kevin Rice (A) (29G, 39A); Dylan Donahue (A) (44G, 17A); Brandon Mullins (D) (13GB, 14CTO); Ben Williams (FOGO) (67.59%)

Marist
NCAA Tournament Appearances: Two (Last: 2005)
NCAA Tournament Championships: None
NCAA Tournament Bid Type: Automatic Qualifier (MAAC)
Record: 14-3 (6-0, MAAC)
Combustibles: Dave Scarcello (G) (58.73 Sv%); Joseph Radin (A) (51G, 17A); Mike Begley (M) (26G, 16A); J.D. Recor (A) (28G, 40A)

It probably isn't going to severely impact the outcome of the game, but an eye should be kept on Marist's proclivity for committing penalties. No team in the nation plays in more man-down postures on a per possession basis than the Red Foxes. Opponents rely on such situations to make the scoreboard blink against Marist, goals in such postures accounting for 14.81 percent of the markers registered against the Red Foxes. While Marist's kill rate is high (it ranks in the top 10 nationally), getting feisty against the Orange is probably a bad idea: Syracuse's extra-man rate ranks sixth in Division I. In a game in which Marist has performance aspects that signal an ability to give the Orange headaches, taking penalties and allowing Syracuse to operate in preferable scoring opportunities is probably a miserable idea (not unlike hot sauce-flavored Gatorade).

• Ben Williams has been the talk of Central New York for the better part of four months. Williams' ability to dominate draws has been a big piece of the Orange's ability to swamp opponents in 2015, but here's the thing: The Orange would still be pretty damn good even if Williams was average. Assuming that all of Syracuse's performance aspects remained the same (including the rate at which the Orange score and prevent goals on a per possession basis), changing only the team's faceoff percentage to 50.13 percent, the Orange would rank sixth nationally in adjusted Pythagorean win expectation -- this measures how many games a team is expected to win based on a series of inputs, including adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency values and possession margin -- and have its estimated possession advantage per 60 minutes move from plus-nine to just about even. The dent in Syracuse's record would be about one win (the team would be expected to go 11-3 instead of 12-2). Williams isn't the reason that the Orange are winning (putting goals in the scoresheet and successfully ending defensive opportunities still dominates a team's win expectation), but he does help Syracuse get down the road. The Orange's bonkers output in the run of play simply amplifies what Williams accomplishes at the dot, and Syracuse would still be in a very strong position to make a run at a victory lap on Memorial Monday if Williams wasn't among the top five faceoff specialists in the nation. (For what it's worth, Williams is expected to win 69.9 percent of his attempts against Dominic Montemurro this weekend, which helps the Orange align to its possession profile earned throughout the spring.)
• Marist's top five offensive players -- Radin, Recor, Colin Joka, Begley, and Drew Nesmith -- are a potent core to the Red Foxes' underappreciated offense. This quintet has provided combustion for Marist all season long and the group has leveraged responsibility within itself. All five players have accumulated at least 37 points this season and all have taken at least 66 shots, the fivesome shouldering a heavy load and delivering in important ways.

  MARIST'S TOP FIVE

  PLAYER	G	A	PTS	SHTS	SHT%	SOG	SOG%
  Joseph Radin	51	17	68	145	35.17%	97	52.58%
  J.D. Recor	28	40	68	66	42.42%	45	62.22%
  Colin Joka	40	8	48	99	40.40%	59	67.80%
  Mike Begley	26	16	42	75	34.67%	58	44.83%
  Drew Nesmith	27	10	37	115	23.48%	56	48.21%
  TOP FIVE	172	91	263	500	34.40%	315	54.60%
  TEAM	204	122	326	633	32.23%	390	52.31%
  % TEAM	84.31%	74.59%	80.67%	78.99%		80.77%

  That's a ton of offense -- the basis of an offense that clicks on north of 35 percent of their estimated offensive opportunities -- concentrated within a small group. Radin, Recor, and Joka are the key pieces to the quintet, but Begley and Nesmith -- indispensible midfielders that take heat off of the team's big three attackman -- are important parts to the machine, even if their individual efficiencies aren't as high as that of the Red Foxes' biggest weapons. These cats make good things happen.