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Everything that's worth knowing about Brown-Denver in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.
From 10,000 Feet
Date and Time: Sunday, May 10, 2015 at 3:00 PM (ET)
Location: Denver, CO
Winner Advances To Play?: The winner of Ohio State-Duke
Television/Internet: ESPNU/WatchESPN; Scott Corrigan and Jamie Munro have the call
Game "Fun Factor": 5.42 ("Very Good")
Massey Ratings Victory Probabilities:
HOME | AWAY | FAVORITE | UNDERDOG | MEAN SCORE |
Denver | Brown | Denver // 86% | Brown // 14% | Denver (15.62) - Brown (10.34) |
This is an aggressive win probability from Massey's computing machine, but it is very similar to a KRACH analysis utilizing KRACH's balanced schedule winning percentage in a log5 environment (that determination gives Denver an 84 percent win probability against Brown). Looking at this from a log5 perspective in an efficiency environment, though, the Pioneers are closer to holding a 62 percent win probability. Regardless, the metrics indicate that Denver is a legitimate favorite against Bruno's hectic universe, one in which a win from the Bears would be somewhat surprising.
What's Your Deal?
Denver
NCAA Tournament Appearances: Eight (Last: 2014)
NCAA Tournament Championships: None
NCAA Tournament Bid Type: Automatic Qualifier (Big East)
Record: 13-2 (5-0, Big East)
Combustibles: Trevor Baptiste (FOGO) (72.55%); Connor Cannizzaro (A) (48G, 31A); Wes Berg (A) (43G, 17A); Ryan LaPlante (G) (51.67 Sv%)
Brown
NCAA Tournament Appearances: 13 (Last: 2009)
NCAA Tournament Championships: None
NCAA Tournament Bid Type: At-Large
Record: 12-4 (4-2, Ivy)
Combustibles: Jack Kelly (G) (56.59 Sv%); Dylan Molloy (A) (59G, 30A); Will Gural (FOGO) (59.67%); Larken Kemp (LSM) (73GB, 32CTO)
Truncated Scouting Reports
METRIC | BROWN | DENVER |
Estimated Pace | 80.56 (1) | 56.49 (64) |
Estimated Opportunities per 60 Minutes Margin | +4.92 (4) | +10.66 (1) |
Estimated Lost Functional Opportunities Margin Ratio | +5.75% (13) | +8.62% (3) |
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency | 32.65 (27) | 42.39 (2) |
Shots per Offensive Opportunity | 1.11 (39) | 1.16 (27) |
Ratio of Shots on Goal to Total Shots per Offensive Opportunity | 57.63% (43) | 64.91% (4) |
Offensive Shooting Rate | 30.00% (21) | 35.78% (3) |
Offensive Assist Rate | 19.68 (18) | 26.19 (3) |
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency | 27.16 (9) | 33.84 (51) |
Shots per Defensive Opportunity | 1.04 (15) | 1.34 (68) |
Ratio of Shots on Goal to Total Shots per Defensive Opportunity | 56.60% (14) | 56.18% (10) |
Defensive Shooting Rate | 25.76% (16) | 26.90% (22) |
Defensive Assist Rate | 14.99 (16) | 21.80 (63) |
Faceoff Percentage | 58.78% (10) | 70.90% (1) |
Clearing Percentage | 86.80% (26) | 87.08% (22) |
Turnover Margin | +8.05 (8) | +9.65 (4) |
"Run of Play" Groundballs Margin | +4.41 (10) | +1.53 (23) |
Penalties Margin | -0.70 (49) | +1.18 (14) |
Saves per 100 Defensive Opportunities | 31.96 (47) | 39.24 (9) |
Team Save Percentage | 54.49% (19) | 52.12% (30) |
There won't be a game in the first round of the NCAA Tournament that features two teams with such disparate pace profiles. Brown is basically The Flaming Lips and Denver is Paul Simon. Teams that prefer and create deflated tempo are in a better position to dictate the volition of a game as constructing heightened pace requires a host of factors to come to fruition: pressing defense, the presence of turnovers, a desire to take advantage of transition opportunities to attack the cage, a scoreboard that blinks at a rate that helps elevate the number of possessions in a game, etc. Bruno likes to press -- its riding rate is among the top 15 in the nation and the Bears cause turnovers at a rate that ranks in the top 10 in Division I -- and the Bears have no fear in pushing in transition, but the issue here is whether Denver is going to break from its identity and fall into Brown's gravity. Opponents have attempted to turn the Pioneers away from their character all season and it hasn't influenced Denver all that much. The Pios have an inherent advantage in establishing the style the team desires for their meeting with Brown, but it will be interesting to see how Bruno attempts to counter Denver's pursuit of pragmatism.
Two Things
- Brown's ability to run with Denver may turn in large part on the Bears' ability to generate defensive stops against the Pioneers' hyper-efficient offense. Not only will this permit Bruno to increase the tempo of the game, but will also help neutralize Baptiste at the dot. It's easy -- and far too simple -- to pin a team's possession issues solely on performance on draws; possession margin isn't only determined through faceoff competence, and mitigating Denver's possession margin dominance requires an increased ability to produce defensive stops that lead to functional offensive opportunities. Bruno has a keeper capable of orchestrating successful defensive opportunities, but how Brown approaches the other elements to a profitable defensive strategy is unclear. The Bears are fantastic at causing turnovers, but the Pioneers are among the best teams in the country at avoiding being dispossessed of the ball. Brown has a lucrative ride, but Denver has a good enough clearing rate. If Bruno attempts to create discomfort with a pressing defense, the Pioneers excel at ball movement to find opportunities in vacated space. If the Bears pack it in around the crease, Denver isn't afraid to take to its time to promote the team's ridiculously accurate shooting acumen. This is the existential crisis for Brown: It needs the defensive stops, but the sightline to such circumstances is clouded and relies, in part, on Denver deviating from their season-long profile.
- Take a look at Denver's opportunities profile:
DENVER'S OPPORTUNITY PROFILE METRIC VALUE N'TL RANK Percent of Estimated Offensive Opportunities from Faceoff Wins 53.17% 1 Percent of Estimated Offensive Opportunities from Clearing Postures 41.47% 69 Percent of Estimated Offensive Opportunities from Opponent Failed Clears 5.36% 65 Percent of Estimated Defensive Opportunities from Faceoff Losses 31.98% 58 Percent of Estimated Defensive Opportunities from Opponent Clearing Postures 60.17% 13 Percent of Estimated Defensive Opportunities from Failed Clears 7.85% 35