Big City Classic Profile: Duke

Remember when Duke was really good and made a run at the national title on the back of a terroristic offense?  Remember that? 

I do, but I'm not sure if my memory is of last year or if I'm having a future memory of Memorial Day Weekend 2011.

Duke is back -- riding high on a seven-game winning streak -- and are bringing their offensive showcase to New Meadowlands Stadium on Sunday for the Big City Classic.  John Danowski has weathered the storm of losing a ridiculous number of graduating contributors and has on his hands one of the toughest outs in college lacrosse.

DUKE (8-2, 2-0): ACC

What Duke Does Well

• Avoid the Man-Down.  It's pretty simple: If you avoid being an idiot, you won't lose games like an idiot. Duke has done that, primarily by not committing penalties.  The Blue Devils are basically the the polar opposite of St. John's.  While teams are shooting fairly well against Duke with the extra-attacker (opponents are converting on 31.25 percent of their man-down opportunities, around 33rd-"best" in the country), Duke simply isn't giving their opponents those opportunities to convert.  Ready?  Set?  Chart!
  
  

  DUKE HATES MAN-DOWN

  METRIC	VALUE	RANKING	AVERAGE
  Penalties Per Possession (Given)	0.0489	13	0.0616
  Man-Down Per Possession	0.0961	15	0.1171

  
  So, it doesn't matter much that Duke is only about average at stopping opponents from converting with the personnel imbalance as the Devils simply aren't in the man-down all that much.
• Commit Goalie Violence.  Let's start with a chart:
  
  

  DUKE HATES YOUR GOALIE

  METRIC	VALUE	RANKING	AVERAGE
  Adjusted Offensive Efficiency	35.89	2	27.9931
  Offensive Shots Per Possession	0.9945	33	0.9953
  Offensive Effective Shooting Percentage	36.44%	1	28.54%
  Offensive Shots on Goal Per Possession	0.6298	17	0.5890
  Offensive Assist Rate	18.23	11	15.02
  Opponent Saves Per Possession	0.2735	10	0.3132

  
  I think that the first-glance realization is important: Duke isn't taking loads of shots on the offensive end, but they are converting the shots that they do take at an incredible rate.  The second realization shows why this is happening: The Devils are getting good looks from helpers.  The last realization is scary: A large majority of Duke's shots are right on cage and opposing goalies simply can't stop these shots on goal.  In short, pin-point accuracy through smart and limited shot selection.  Dangerous.

What Duke Doesn't Do Well

• Dominate the Man-Up. You would think that with Duke's hyper-efficient and accurate offense that the Devils would be killing with the extra-attacker.  Wrong:
  
  

  DUKE HATES THE MAN-UP

  METRIC	VALUE	RANKING	AVERAGE
  Extra-Man Conversion Rate	24.07%	42	31.09%
  Extra-Man Opportunity Per Possession	0.1492	11	0.1183
  Extra-Man Opportunity Reliance	0.1008	44	0.1309
  Penalties Per Possession (Opponent)	0.2735	10	0.3132

  
  Weird.  The Devils are on the man-up a lot and just aren't getting it done in those scenarios, content to beat its opponents while even.  Just imagine if Duke was murdering with the extra-man: Effective shooting percentage provides extra-weight to man-up (and -down) goals; Duke's potential rate would be through the roof.