Reverse Survivor: The Darkness

The Mount is down to two opportunities to earn a win this season.

Mount St. Mary's (0-14)
Next Opponent: Wagner -- April 19th
Chance of Victory: See below.
Next Reasonable Chance of Victory: Wagner -- April 19th. See below.

This is kind of it for Mount St. Mary's. After 14 consecutive losses, the Mountaineers are approaching their sunset. The only opportunities that The Mount have left to bag a kill and unleash a victory celebration come this weekend against Wagner and on April 26th at Sacred Heart. The darkness of the offseason is infinitely more unbearable if it's experienced in the suffocating horror of a winless year, and if Mount St. Mary's hopes to avoid this extended nightmare, the Mountaineers need to find a way to make a win -- not two wins; a single, lone victory -- part of their reality.

The odds are mixed as to The Mount's chances to earn victories in their final two dates on the calendar. The Mountaineers' game against Wagner -- the team's home finale -- looks like a better opportunity to have a balloon animal party, but that isn't even a gimmie-game for The Mount. Here's how the Mount's chances look in a log5 atmosphere relative to their final two games:

log5 PROBABILITIES: THE MOUNT'S FINAL TWO GAMES
GAME FAVORITE UNDERDOG GAME FAVORITE UNDERDOG
Wagner at Mount St. Mary's Wagner (57.20%) Mount St. Mary's (42.80%) Mount St. Mary's at Sacred Heart Sacred Heart (82.85%) Mount St. Mary's (17.15%)

There's little question that Mount St. Mary's best look comes against Wagner, a virtual toss-up of a game that could serve as the prettiest rock fight that the Mountaineers have ever fought in. As bad as The Mount has been this season, the Seahawks aren't exactly setting the world on fire with performances that make children join hands across the globe and sing a song of peace. These are, in many ways, similar teams with similar problems, a breath of relief for the Mountaineers after playing a schedule ranked 33rd nationally in strength:

TRUNCATED MATCH-UP PROFILE: WAGNER AT MOUNT ST. MARY'S
METRIC WAGNER (NT'L RANK) MOUNT ST. MARY'S (NT'L RANK)
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency 21.79 (63) 17.36 (67)
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency 36.83 (62) 32.23 (41)
Pythagorean Win Expectation 16.42% (64) 12.81% (66)
Raw Offensive Shooting Rate 22.51% (61) 19.94% (66)
Raw Defensive Shooting Rate 31.59% (58) 31.45% (58)
Possession Margin per 60 Minutes of Play -3.18 (52) -7.57 (67)
Team Save Percentage 49.16% (52) 51.54% (39)

This game isn't going to qualify for instructional video status, but that doesn't matter much to The Mount at this point: It's a chance to drop a fool and enjoy the spoils of war.

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