NCAA Lacrosse Tournament: Seven Teams on the Bubble?

Robert Laberge

Bracket projectors have weighed in today and it looks like there are seven teams sitting on the bubble.

In this morning's bracket aggregation, there looked to be seven schools -- Bucknell, Duke, Loyola, Pennsylvania, Penn State, Princeton, and Yale -- sitting on the bubble. Some of these schools are in better positions than others (notably Princeton and Yale, which have an opportunity to win the Ivy League's automatic invitation tomorrow), but all are in similar situations -- for at-large consideration -- relative to NCAA Tournament participation.

Given the volume of games today -- none of which significantly changed the bubble thanks to Syracuse and Albany taking care of business in their tournament finals -- an update as to these teams' resume is probably warranted. I turned on the LaxPower machine and created the table below; it considers all the primary factors that the Selection Committee considers. Absorb all of this ridiculousness:

THE BUBBLE: May 4, 2013 (Evening)
Metric Bucknell Duke Loyola Pennsylvania Penn State Princeton Yale
RPI Rank 11 12 10 14 8 15 9
RPI S.o.S. 11 7 13 15 8 4 9
RPI Wins Delaware (47), Bryant (42), Navy (50), Massachusetts (22), Drexel (18), Lafayette (59), Cornell (6), Albany (13), Holy Cross (46), Army (33), Colgate (29), Army (33) Jacksonville (35), Mercer (60), Loyola (10), North Carolina (4), Towson (23), Marist (37), Georgetown (41), Harvard (27), High Point (56), Virginia (20), Rutgers (55) Delaware (47), Towson (23), UMBC (34), Bellarmine (31), Air Force (32), Georgetown (41), Michigan (54), Ohio State (3), Fairfield (24), Hobart (28), Johns Hopkins (16) Duke (12), St. Joseph's (52), Lehigh (17), Villanova (21), Princeton (15), Brown (25), Dartmouth (45), Bellarmine (31) Michigan (54), Denver (5), Massachusetts (22), Binghamton (48), St. Joseph's (52), Bucknell (11), Villanova (21), Drexel (18), Towson (23), Delaware (47), Hofstra (26), Massachusetts (22) Hofstra (26), Johns Hopkins (16), Villanova (21), Manhattan (61), Yale (9), Brown (25), Rutgers (55), Harvard (27), Cornell (6) Albany (13), Sacred Heart (58), Fairfield (24), Pennsylvania (14), Providence (40), Dartmouth (45), Brown (25), Stony Brook (36), Harvard (27), Pennsylvania (14)
RPI Losses Mount St. Mary's (44), Penn State (8), Lehigh (17), Lehigh (17) Denver (5), Notre Dame (1), Pennsylvania (14), Maryland (7), North Carolina (4) Maryland (7), Duke (12), Denver (5), Ohio State (3) Denver (5), Cornell (6), Yale (9), Harvard (27), Yale (9) Notre Dame (1), Ohio State (3), Lehigh (17), Towson (23) North Carolina (4), Pennsylvania (14), Syracuse (2), Dartmouth (45), Cornell (6) St. John's (19), Cornell (6), Princeton (15), Maryland (7)
Average RPI Win 33.17 33.45 30.27 27.25 29.08 27.33 29.60
Average RPI Loss 21.5 6.20 6.75 11.20 11 14.20 11.75
RPI Record 1-5 (0-0); 6-10 (1-1); 11-20 (2-2); 21+ (9-1) 1-5 (1-3); 6-10 (1-1); 11-20 (1-1); 21+ (8-0) 1-5 (1-2); 6-10 (0-1); 11-20 (1-1); 21+ (9-0) 1-5 (0-1); 6-10 (0-3); 11-20 (3-0); 21+ (5-1) 1-5 (1-2); 6-10 (0-0); 11-20 (2-1); 21+ (9-1) 1-5 (0-2); 6-10 (2-1); 11-20 (1-1); 21+ (6-1) 1-5 (0-0); 6-10 (0-2); 11-20 (3-2); 21+ (7-0)

Obviously these are razor-thin differences. I don't know how I'd order these resumes from top to bottom, but this is what I think about the above-table:

  • Between Pennsylvania and Yale, I think you need to take the Elis due to the two head-to-head results. All the factors considered, the play on the field tips the balance to the Bulldogs.
  • Of this group, Duke, Loyola, and Penn State (in no particular order) look to have the three strongest profiles. As there are likely only three positions available -- Albany, Syracuse, Towson, Ohio State, [the Ivy League champion], Bryant, Lehigh, Cornell, Maryland, North Carolina, Notre Dame, and Denver all appear locked into the field -- those three teams are likely your clubhouse leaders going into tomorrow night's selection show (all but Duke are idle the rest of the way). Tomorrow may bring different kinds of circumstances, but this is where things stand at the moment.

But it doesn't matter what I think. What do you knuckleheads think? The comments are yours to unleash.

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