ACC Lacrosse Tournament Preview: Duke-North Carolina

Mitchell Layton

Get your face ready for Devils-Heels.

Every Division I tournament. Every team. College Crosse has it all on lockdown. Please send cookies and naptime. Today we're slashing to bits the ACC Tournament.

Only Sly Stone can properly address this game:

THE COMPUTING MACHINE SAYS

Log5: Duke (36.20%); North Carolina (63.80%) (I think the computer is drunk.)

DOSSIERS

ACC Tournament: Duke (3) vs. North Carolina (2)
DUKE BLUE DEVILS NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS
OPPORTUNITIES/TEMPO
Pace 66.80 (28) 69.88 (12)
Opportunities Margin +5.33 (3) +0.15 (35)
Possession Ratio 53.99% (4) 50.11% (35)
Functional Offensive Opportunities per 60 Minutes 33.93 (7) 32.81 (13)
Functional Offensive Opportunities Ratio 94.09% (9) 93.70% (13)
Functional Defensive Opportunities per 60 Minutes 27.87 (11) 31.97 (46)
Functional Defensive Opportunities Ratio 90.67% (17) 91.70% (25)
Lost Functional Offensive Opportunities per 60 Minutes 12.20 (31) 10.81 (6)
Lost Functional Offensive Opportunities Ratio 35.95% (12) 32.95% (6)
Lost Functional Defensive Opportunities per 60 Minutes 13.87 (11) 12.94 (22)
Lost Functional Defensive Opportunities Ratio 49.76% (3) 40.48% (32)
Lost Functional Opportunities Margin +1.67 (13) +2.13 (8)
Lost Functional Opportunities Margin Ratio 13.81% (1) 7.53% (8)
ADJUSTED EFFICIENCIES
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency 38.94 (3) 38.35 (5)
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency 30.83 (32) 25.30 (15)
Adjusted Efficiency Margin +8.11 (11) +13.06 (2)
SHOOTING
Shots per Offensive Opportunity 1.16 (19) 1.13 (23)
Raw Offensive Shooting Rate 32.27% (8) 31.92% (9)
Shots per Defensive Opportunity 1.10 (34) 1.02 (20)
Raw Defensive Shooting Rate 28.88% (41) 25.70% (14)
ASSISTS
Offensive Assist Ratio 59.61% (20) 55.42% (40)
Offensive Assist Rate 22.37 (5) 20.00 (14)
Defensive Assist Ratio 52.38% (19) 54.17% (26)
Defensive Assist Rate 16.70 (35) 14.19 (8)
EXTRA-MAN RATES
Extra-Man Postures per 100 Offensive Opportunities 7.76 (61) 9.13 (46)
Extra-Man Posture Reliance 8.37% (57) 9.04% (51)
Extra-Man Posture Conversion Rate 40.48% (12) 35.71% (24)
Man-Down Postures per 100 Defensive Opportunities 13.23 (53) 8.73 (10)
Man-Down Posture Reliance 14.97% (50) 14.17% (45)
Man-Down Posture Conversion Rate 36.07% (42) 42.50% (57)
MISCELLANEOUS
Penalties per 100 Opportunities (Team) 6.89 (49) 4.58 (11)
Penalties per 100 Opportunities (Opponent) 4.39 (57) 5.01 (46)
Caused Turnovers per 100 Defensive Opportunities (Team) 26.46 (13) 21.83 (31)
Caused Turnovers per 100 Defensive Opportunities (Opponent) 15.16 (3) 16.96 (6)
Turnovers per 100 Offensive Opportunities (Team) 39.74 (10) 37.17 (5)
Turnovers per 100 Offensive Opportunities (Opponent) 54.45 (4) 45.41 (29)
Unforced Turnovers per 100 Offensive Opportunities (Team) 24.58 (42) 20.22 (11)
Unforced Turnovers per 100 Offensive Opportunities (Opponent) 27.98 (3) 23.58 (30)
Team "Run-of-Play Work Rate" (Non-Faceoff Groundballs per 100 Total Opportunities) 30.84 (15) 31.26 (12)
Opponent "Run-of-Play Work Rate" (Non-Faceoff Groundballs per 100 Total Opportunities) 25.95 (22) 29.08 (44)
"Run-of-Play Work Rate" Margin +4.89 (8) +2.18 (21)
GOALIE ACTIVITY
Saves per 100 Defensive Opportunities 32.54 (36) 34.50 (28)
Saves per 100 Offensive Opportunities 35.30 (39) 36.30 (49)
Team Save Percentage 50.51% (48) 56.83% (10)
Opponent Save Percentage 48.48% (12) 50.15% (18)

THOUGHTS AND STUFF

Two pieces of incredibly important information about each team from my brain to your eyes via your Internet computing machine:

  • Duke's offense is rocket ship that streaks to the outer reaches of the universe, but that's not necessarily what interests me about the Devils this evening. Instead, I'm interested in this relationship -- only two teams see opponents lose functional offensive opportunities more than Duke; only five teams maximize their attack box postures by limiting turnovers better than North Carolina. The Tar Heels have done an amazing job limiting turnovers this season (in the overall and also in the specific sense that opponents aren't causing turnovers against Carolina); Duke is seeing opponents -- partially due to caused giveaways, partially due to unforced turnovers -- lose the ball at a rate that ranks among the national elite. If the Devils hope to insulate Kyle Turri from overexposure to the Tar Heels' Death Squad of Death, Duke may need to get out on Carolina's hands or otherwise create and accept circumstances in which the Heels uncharacteristically turn over the bean. Duke has strong defensive pieces but in totem the Devils aren't exactly a crushing force of defensive might; if they're able to turn Carolina over, Duke may not need to outscore the Tar Heels in a fireworks show at a nitroglycerin plant; rather, the Devils could actually build a little bit of a cushion and not trust Turri to stand on his head against one of the three or four best offenses in the nation.
  • North Carolina isn't playing with the possession margin it had a season ago but it hasn't held the Tar Heels back this year. A big reason for that has been the development of Carolina's defense and that unit will receive a staunch test today at Kenan Stadium. How that unit performs against Jordan Wolf Contracting and Associates, Inc., is one of the stories of the day, but I think there's a bigger talking point: Assuming Brendan Fowler has himself a day at the dot (which isn't a given as he'll be taking draws against R.G. Keenan) and forces Carolina plays at a possession deficit on the day, how will the Tar Heels maximize their offensive opportunities to either keep pace with Duke (which will have the chance to score with volume) or force the Devils to play from behind? Carolina is one of the most efficient offensive teams in the country and that value is driven primarily by the team's shooting acumen and less so by the rate at which the team shares the ball to create tallies (this doesn't mean that the Heels are purely a one-on-one offense (that'd be a lie), but rather that the relationships in the offensive end don't necessarily yield a lot of assisted tallies). The Tar Heels are in good shape relative to the defense and keeper that they'll face tonight -- this is a wheelhouse situation -- but the question remains: Will Carolina have enough possessions to beat Duke and how efficiently will the Tar Heels utilize those possessions?
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