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THUNDERDOME! Conference Tournament Odds: Who's the Favorite?

I'm a bit late with the CAA -- err, I mean THUNDERDOME! -- conference tournament odds, but it's better late than never, right? If you want to read about each team more in-depth, all of your THUNDERDOME! goodness is encapsulated right here in this very link. Really, what more could you want? Pretty infographics, enough data to make your eyes bleed, some humor. You know, besides some Log 5 conference tournament odds.

As always, these are presented on the backs of my own efficiency-based ratings like the ones in the above link or the ones found at the great Tempo Free Lax. Mine combine a regressed and un-regressed model to arrive at a final Pythagorean win percentage. And away we go.

Caatournamentlog5odds_medium

You can click the image to enlarge.

Massachusetts: They are first in both of my efficiency models, HoyaSuxa's model (confirmed by this here Lax Poll post) and at Tempo Free Lax. Lax Power also are big fans, too. They're damned good, and the computers have had them No. 1 for a good while -- even while Loyola shared the top with them (and out-right took it) -- and they finally sit atop the polls by their lonesome. Because of their awesomness (and undefeated season, thus far) they are the top seed in the THUNDERDOME! conference tournament. As such, they get a 10% boost in their rating for being the home team. Also, Towson grabbed the fourth seed and because of that, UMass should really cake-walk into the conference tournament finals. They're Favorited over the Tigers to the tune of 97.3%. The 2-3 match up is very close, which means it's near 50-50 UMass would face either Drexel or Penn State. Against the Dragons, UMass are 92% favorites. Against the Nittany Lions, they are 92% favorites. What I'm saying is that the Minutemen have a 89.6% chance to walk away from their home turf with the trophy. If they don't win, the odds will have been beyond beaten.

Towson: Sorry, Towson. You're not going to win this tournament. Just a 2.7% chance to beat UMass and should such a long shot come through, you're only 23.9% to beat Drexel and 25.3% to beat Penn State. Overall, your chances of winning this tournament are a robust 0.007%. That is not a typo, people. Less than one full percent.

Drexel: Oh, Drexel, how your 7-7 record doesn't really indicate your talents. The Dragons have played more like a 9-5 team this year than the 7-7 team. They're a danger to steal an auto-bid in this tournament (not big threats, but a threat is a threat is a threat) should they sneak by their first game. They get the second-seeded Penn State Nittany Lions in what should be the best game of the THUNDERDOME! Tournament. It's a pick-'em game with Drexel holding the slightest of edges at 51.8% to beat Penn State. Against UMass, however, they are just 8.1% to win. As for the tournament title, the Dragons possess around a 5.2% chance. (Have I mentioned that Massachusetts is the best team in the country based on efficiency and are at home? Yeah, keep that in mind.)

Penn State: They're slight dogs to the Dragons at 48.2% to make the tournament finals. However, they are just 7.6% to beat Massachusetts. This, overall, gives the kids from State College just a 4.5% chance to march into the Minutemen's place and steal away their trophy and the CAA -- I mean THUNDERDOME! -- automatic birth to the NCAA Tournament.

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